SACCONE, LAMB SQUARE OFF TODAY
Eyes of nation on Western Pennsylvania congressional race
The special election for the 18th Congressional District is Tuesday, pitting Republican Rick Saccone of Elizabeth Township against Democrat Conor Lamb of Mt. Lebanon.
The polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. in the 18th District, which comprises communities in Allegheny, Greene, Washington and Westmoreland counties. Only those registered to vote in the 18th can cast ballots in this special election, sparked by the resignation last year of Republican Tim Murphy.
The race has drawn national attention because it is seen somewhat as a referendum on the policies of Donald Trump, who has visited the district twice in recent weeks.
Whoever prevails Tuesday won’t have much time to savor the win. He will serve only through the remainder of this year’s legislative session. The district could cease to exist under a new Pennsylvania congressional map issued by the state Supreme Court after it ruled the previous map was unconstitutionally gerrymandered.
Voters go to the polls Tuesday after a long run-up in the national spotlight to the special election for the U.S. House seat vacated by Tim Murphy last year.
Donald Trump Jr., the son of President Donald Trump, appeared alongside state Rep. Rick Saccone on Monday — a day on which polling data showed momentum shifting in favor of Mr. Saccone’s Democratic rival, Conor Lamb.
“It’s a small special election, but it’s important for our guys to stay engaged,” Mr. Trump told the Post-Gazette in an interview after touring Washington County’s Sarris Candies facility. Voters “came out in droves for Donald Trump” during the 2016 election, he said. “My father is not on this ticket, but people have to realize that all the winning that they’ve had ... can always go away easily.”
Just how easily that could happen in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District — which Mr. Trump’s father won by nearly 20 points — became clear as the two men toured the plant. On Monday afternoon, New Jersey-based Monmouth University released a poll showing Mr. Lamb leading Mr. Saccone by a margin of as much as 7 points, depending on assumptions about turnout.
Monmouth provided polling results for three turnout scenarios: a “surge” in which fired-up Democrats vote in numbers similar to that of recent special elections; a scenario in which turnout is similar to that of a presidential election year; and a low-turnout forecast with voter behavior similar to that of a typical midterm election.
Mr. Lamb’s edge is almost identical in the first two models, with him leading Mr. Saccone by 51-45 and 51-44 respectively. The “low turnout” case had Mr. Lamb up 49-47, a result well within the poll’s 5.1 percent margin of error.
“When added to a potential Democratic surge that has been building for weeks, Lamb appears to have picked off enough Republican-leaning voters to take a lead,” said Patrick Murray, who directs Monmouth’s Polling Institute, in a statement.
When Monmouth polled the race in mid-February, its survey suggested Mr. Saccone held the edge, although the results were within the earlier poll’s margin of error. That’s despite a multimillion-dollar ad campaign waged on Mr. Saccone’s behalf by national Republican groups.
The results cap a trend that has emerged from other polling. Surveys have shown this race either close to or within the margin of error, but the overall trend has been in the direction of Mr. Lamb, a 33-year-old former federal prosecutor from Mt. Lebanon.
In his interview, Mr. Trump was unfazed by the findings. “I don’t put much faith in polling numbers,” he said, recalling that prognosticators routinely showed his father losing the election — often by sizable numbers. “I was there ... when were were down 12 [and] had a zero percent chance of winning.”
“All the other side has is hate for everything my father does,” he added. While he touted the nation’s strong economic performance, he said, “the other side doesn’t care about those things. They basically are the party of dependence” that opposed his father simply because “they need problems” for political reasons. “What are they going to run on? The economy?”
Such a pitch would be a tough sell for Sarris executive Norm Candelore Jr., who said “people are more willing to try different things and spend more money” since Mr. Trump took office. The company’s latest quarter, he said, was the best he’d seen since starting with Sarris in 1982.
Mr. Saccone and Mr. Trump toured the Sarris facility, occasionally donning hairnets where chocolate confections were being made. U.S. Rep. Keith Rothfus, R-Sewickley, was also on hand: Under a congressional district map imposed by the state Supreme Court, Mr. Lamb would be drawn into Mr. Rothfus’ own congressional district.
“I’m going to have to explain to my kids how I didn’t bring them today,” Mr. Trump joked at one point during the tour.
At this rate, they may get another chance. Supporting Mr. Saccone has almost become a family business itself. Mr. Trump’s visit followed his father’s rally in Moon this past weekend: Mr. Saccone also appeared with Ivanka Trump at a South Hills economic round-table earlier in the campaign. The 18th District race, which ranges across four southwestern Pennsylvania counties, is widely seen as a bellwether for this year’s midterms, and for Mr. Trump’s popularity in white enclaves that helped deliver victory in 2016.
The political newsletter Axios, citing “four sources” it did not name, reported on Sunday that the elder Mr. Trump had voiced serious misgivings about Mr. Saccone, calling him a “weak” candidate.
Mr. Trump said “I haven’t heard” his father say that.
“It sounds like a very convenient media talking point in a close race,” he said.