Interpreting the results

The news warns that even one drink per day carries a risk. But how great is that risk?

For each set of 100,000 people who have one drink a day per year, 918 can expect to experience one of the 23 alcohol-related problems in any year. Of those who drink nothing, 914 can expect to experience a problem. This means that 99,086 are unaffected, and 914 will have an issue no matter what. Only 4 in 100,000 people who consume a drink a day may have a problem caused by the drinking, according to this study.

At two drinks per day, the number experiencing a problem increased to 977. Even at five drinks per day, which most agree is too much, the vast majority of people are unaffected.

I’m not advocating that people should ignore these risks. They are real, but they are much smaller than many other risks in our lives, and much less than the headlines would have you believe, especially at the levels that most agree are permissible.

Your risk may differ

This is a population-level study, arguably a worldwide study, but the results are being interpreted at an individual level. They are merging, for instance, the 23 alcohol-related health issues together. But not everyone experiences them at the same rate.

For diabetes and heart disease, for instance, the risks actually go down with light or moderate drinking. The authors argue that this result is overrun, however, by risks for things like cancer and tuberculosis, which go up. But for many individuals, the risks for diabetes and heart disease are much higher than those for cancer and tuberculosis.

Motor vehicle accidents caused by drinking are clearly worse in some places than others. The study had data only for the United States and extrapolated that worldwide. It’s not clear that everyone is at the same risk in reality.

Heavy drinkers

This message shouldn’t get lost in any argument: There is no debate, and this study confirms once again, that heavy drinking is really bad for you.

The population level average of daily drinks is 1.9 for women and 3.2 for men, according to the study. This is above U.S. government health recommendations, butit is probably skewed by those who drink heavily, a relatively small percentage of all people who drink.

Of course, some drink too much without knowing it. For this study, a drink was defined as 10 grams of pure alcohol, as much as you might get in 1 ounce of spirits (a small shot glass) that is 40 percent alcohol; 3.4 ounces of wine that’s 13 percent alcohol; or 12 ounces of beer that’s 3.5 percent alcohol. Many people consume more than that and consider it “a drink.”

Reframe the debate

Moderate alcohol consumption is associated with certain improved risk factors for health (which this study confirms), but this is not the same as recommending that people drink. I don’t, and I don’t know of any health-related professional organizations that do.

But just because something is unhealthy in large amounts doesn’t mean that we must completely abstain. A chart in the study showed rising risks from alcohol from 0 to 15 drinks.

Consider that 15 desserts a day would be bad for you. I am sure that I could create a chart showing increasing risk for many diseases from 0 to 15 desserts.This could lead to assertions that “there’s no safe amount of dessert.” But it doesn’t mean you should never, ever eat dessert.

Food is not medicine. Neither is alcohol. Alcoholism is terrible. There’s a balance, and we could spend lifetimes arguing over where the line is for many people. The truth is we just don’t know. If these studies are intended to drive population-level policy, we should use them as such, to argue that we might want to push people to be wary of overconsumption.

Too many people interpret them individually, however, with panic-inducing results.