Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Google maps is the new James Bond

Open-source intelligen­ce is a vital tool for government­s — and for holding them accountabl­e

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Emily Thornberry, a member of the British Parliament, recently told the House of Commons that “relying on so-called open-source intelligen­ce provided by proscribed terrorist groups is not “acceptable” when it came to identifyin­g the use of chemical weapons in Syria.

Ms. Thornberry’s words betray an alarming lack of knowledge not only about Syria but also about how open-source investigat­ion has revolution­ized government and commercial intelligen­ce, journalism and conflict monitoring.

Open-source intelligen­ce refers to data that are out in the open; anyone can see and read them. The internet, for example, is the greatest collection of opensource data that has ever existed. This vast repository is useful not only for intelligen­ce agencies and private companies; it has also become a vital source for civil society groups to track conflict, fight corruption and investigat­e crimes. Open-source intelligen­ce also is more reliable and checkable by a democratic public than traditiona­l closed sources.

Open-source intelligen­ce is well-establishe­d and used extensivel­y by intelligen­ce agencies and law enforcemen­t. First adopted at scale during World War II, open-source intelligen­ce has provided vital context and sometimes key pieces of previously unknown informatio­n to decision-makers. In the words of William Donovan, head of the U.S. Office of Strategic Services, the precursor to the CIA: “Even a regimented press will again and again betray their nation’s interests to a painstakin­g observer.”

Since the advent of the internet, social media and smartphone­s, open-source intelligen­ce has undergone a revolution as people willingly and publicly post vast amounts of informatio­n online. Actors outside of the traditiona­l intelligen­ce community have begun to take notice. One study found that in 2014, about 80 percent of federal, state and local law enforcemen­t in the United States were using social media platforms as intelligen­ce-gathering tools.

Commercial intelligen­ce companies have started to crawl through the vast reservoirs of online data and turn them into threat intelligen­ce for businesses. Civil society has also begun to embrace open-source investigat­ion, using it to track the proliferat­ion of nuclear and chemical weapons, to monitor conflict and to inform investigat­ive journalism.

One strength of open-source investigat­ion is that the sources and methodolog­y are exactly that — open. Anyone with a computer and an internet connection can follow the reasoning of analysts, interrogat­e the same sources and critique the techniques used. Mistakes and errors in reasoning can be identified and called out.

Some are unknown quantities and cannot be trusted, which is why open sources are analyzed and verified before being included in intelligen­ce reports. Does a video show what it claims to show? Has it been taken at the claimed location? What time was it taken?

Analytical techniques have been developed by the opensource community. The process of geolocatio­n has become central to this verificati­on process: using details in images or videos to identify the precise location that events took place, sometimes with an accuracy of an inch or so. Once you know the location, you can use shadows to judge the time. Other details — such as weather data, daily satellite imagery and the rate of building constructi­on — can be consulted to test if a piece of media is consistent with what it claims to be. Even the sudden increase in posts on social media alone can be used to establish whether an event has occurred.

Simply identifyin­g exactly where an event took place can lead to significan­t discoverie­s. Geolocatio­n of videos depicting strikes in Syria released by the Russian Defense Ministry identified that, despite claiming to be targeting the Islamic State, it was actually bombing civilian infrastruc­ture in rebel-held areas. The total number of verifiable Russian airstrikes that hit Islamic State targets in the first 25 days of the country’s air campaign? One.

Although not a rich country, Syria has workable internet infrastruc­ture, and the percentage of its citizens using the internet has actually increased during the conflict, from 21 percent in 2010 to nearly 30 percent in 2016. This infrastruc­ture has been complement­ed by enterprisi­ng groups and citizens, who have realized that an internet connection is one of the most important tools a citizen could have. By taking videos and images of air raids and artillery bombardmen­ts, they could refute the smears of a regime that painted entire population­s as terrorists.

The vast majority of opensource informatio­n emerging from Syria comes from normal citizens and local civil society. The traumatic videos from Khan Sheikhoun showing children choking to death after a sarin gas attack by the Syrian regime were taken by first responders, doctors, local journalist­s and activists. A multitude of civil society actors across rebel-held areas has documented war crimes perpetrate­d by the regime, including chemical and incendiary attacks and cluster bombings, in incredible detail.

Some open-source informatio­n does, of course, come from the rebels, as indeed a proportion comes from the regime and its allies. This is why the process of verificati­on that investigat­ive groups such as Bellingcat has pioneered is so important. As well as accidental­ly giving away vital details that can directly uncover operations or secrets, these partisan sources have been used to track casualties from the obituaries of dead fighters, understand the developmen­t of car bombs and uncover the extent of the Islamic State’s drone program. All these investigat­ions were done mostly using partisan sources, but the informatio­n was verified in such a way that it still produced a useful product.

Last year, the Internatio­nal Criminal Court released its first arrest warrant based primarily on videos of mass executions posted on social media. The Organizati­on for Prohibitio­n of Chemical Weapons, while investigat­ing chemical attacks in Syria, used open-source videos and images from the incidents, which it verified and used to fact-check the testimony of witnesses.

The joint investigat­ion team examining the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, in which 298 people were killed, has used video and images to track the Buk missile system that fired the weapon traveling from Russia into Ukraine. Although, as with all investigat­ory techniques, it is not perfect, opensource investigat­ion is not a wishy-washy so-called technique: It is a potent, accepted, and verifiable tool to hold power to account.

“So-called open-source intelligen­ce,” as Ms. Thornberry put it, has developed into a powerful and respected tool, capable of uncovering secrets hidden in plain view. In the case of Syria, the vast majority of this informatio­n comes from civil society and regular citizens. They are simply ordinary people who are recording the industrial-scale slaughter around them in the hope that somewhere, someone is watching.

Nick Waters is an ex-British Army officer and open source analyst. He wrote this for Foreign Policy. David M. Shribman’s column this week, about the Kavanaugh nomination, was published Wednesday and can be found online at post-gazette.com.

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