No mystery behind six-game slide
Many issues surface during draining stretch
Pitt’s past six games have been a dispiriting jolt, a winless stretch that has reminded the team that for as far as it has come, it’s still a squad with three freshman starters and the remnants of a last-place finisher trying to climb up the ACC standings.
In a mere three weeks, the Panthers have gone from 12-5 to 12-11, plagued by a slew of problems.
These recent struggles can be tied to a number of factors, including a conference strength of schedule that’s still rated as the toughest in the ACC and among the sport’s six major conferences. An overtime loss Tuesday against previously last-place Wake Forest, though, indicates some of Pitt’s issues go deeper.
Heading into their game Saturday against N.C. State, here are six stats to help explain the Panthers’ rather sudden woes:
19:
The number of shots at the rim, i.e. layups or dunks, Trey McGowens has attempted in Pitt’s six-game losing streak, off which he scored 17 points. In its previous four games, he had 29 such attempts, scoring 31 points. The Pitt freshman isn’t necessarily shooting much less; it’s that a much smaller percentage of his shots are coming from an area of the court where he is the most effective, either because he makes those shots or he draws a foul (or both). Those 19 rim attempts came in a six-game stretch in which he attempted 52 shots (36.5 percent of his total shots), which is drastically different from the 29 rim attempts he had in 47 shots in the four games before that (61.7 percent).
For the season, 52.7 percent of his field-goal attempts are coming at the rim, down from 58.3 percent not even three full weeks ago.
30.8:
Pitt’s free-throw rate in its past six games, which is a percent calculated by dividing a team’s free-throw attempts by its overall field-goal attempts. In its first 17 games of the season, its free-throw rate was 47.3. Even when they get to the line, the Panthers haven’t been nearly as good, making only 64.8 percent of their free throws over the past six games, down from 72.5 percent in the first 17 contests.
Those recent shortcomings have been embodied by McGowens. The 6foot-3 guard’s free-throw rate the past six games is 25 after posting an otherworldly rate of 104.3 in the first four games of ACC play. For the first 17 games of the season, it was 74.8. At 62.1 for the season, McGowens still ranks among the top 65 Division I players in that category. In the moments he has gotten to the line the past six games, he hasn’t capitalized, making only eight of his 13 free throws (61.5 percent) after draining 89 of his first 113 free throws (78.8 percent) this season.
15.2:
The percent of Pitt’s 2-point attempts that are getting blocked this season, the worst mark of Division I’s 353 teams. In the past six games, 18.6 percent of its attempts have been getting sent back. Part of that has to do with a team that has become more aggressive driving to the basket, where smaller players such as McGowens and Xavier Johnson are unable to finish over much taller defenders. Frontcourt players, however, have been affected almost as much.
Of the 40 blocks the Panthers’ opponents have recorded in the past six games, 11 came against Terrell Brown or Kene Chukwuka, the players the team rotates at center (11 have come against McGowens and Johnson on rim attempts).
This has been one of the struggles from last season that Pitt has been unable to shed, as it was last in Division I last season in the category, when a team that was much more jump-shot dependent had 15.2 percent of its 2s swatted.
33.3:
The percent of missed shots off which Pitt is allowing its opponents to get offensive rebounds, an even one of every three. That ranks the Panthers 326th among 353 Division I teams. During the six-game losing streak, opponents are getting offensive boards on 36.5 percent of their misses. Fortunately for the Panthers, their foes haven’t fully capitalized on those of late, getting only 61 second-chance points in those six games.
20:
The number of defensive rebounds collected by Pitt’s two primary big men — Brown and Chukwuka — in a combined 205 minutes the past six games. That’s an average of not even one-tenth of a defensive rebound per minute. Phrased differently, only 10.5 percent of opponents’ 191 missed shots in those six games have ended up in the hands of their two tallest players.
1.09:
The number of points per possession Pitt has allowed during its skid, giving up 444 points on 408 possessions. It’s a stretch that turned what at one point was a statistically elite defense into a more pedestrian one. Through the first 17 games, the Panthers were allowing an almost even one point per possession, surrendering 1,245 points on 1,244 possessions. Given the pace at which they play, it’s effectively the difference between allowing 77 and 71 points in a game.
The recent struggles predated the sixgame losing streak to an extent, as Pitt gave up 1.06 points per possession in its first four ACC games. For all the lumps it has taken of late defensively, Pitt is still 41st among Division I teams in adjusted defensive efficiency, which takes into account the difficulty of a team’s schedule.