Nothing adds up yet
Pirates confront injuries, confound logic to stay afloat
Monday was the Pirates’ first day off since May 6. When the Pirates (24-20) start their series Tuesday against the Colorado Rockies at PNC Park, it’ll be the first of 14 scheduled games in 13 days. The stretch includes a doubleheader May 27 against the Cincinnati Reds to make up a rainout on the opening weekend.
It’ll be the first time the Pirates have played the
Reds since the bench-clearing fracas April 7 in a Pirates win.
There will be plenty of time to rehash the events after the league felt Chris Archer threw at Dietrich. The pitch was thrown behind him, instigating the altercation.
We’ll come back to that in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the Pirates’ 7-4 road trip has placed them four games over .500 and in third place in the National League Central Division.
They have found ways to remain competitive in spite of having 20 players hit the injured list in 44 games.
Conventional logic would say the injuries will catch up with the Pirates. But they have defied logic. For example, they are 26th in run differential at minus-39. There are 13 teams with a negative run differential, and the Pirates are the only one with a winning record.
Let’s examine the key factors to the Pirates continuing to defy conventional wisdom and rise in the standings:
• Since we mentioned Archer earlier, let’s start there. He will be the starter Tuesday against the Rockies. With Jameson Taillon and Trevor Williams out of the lineup, the Pirates need the 30-year-old more than ever. Archer has a 5.38 ERA, and he’ll be the first to say that isn’t where he wants to be. Archer still has swingand-miss stuff as evidenced by his 34 strikeouts in 30⅔ innings pitched. Control has been his problem as evidenced by 16 walks. Archer will need to pitch more like he did April 13 against the Washington Nationals, when he allowed one run on four hits and two walks with nine strikeouts in his best outing of the season.
• Taillon is on the 60-day IL and Williams can’t throw for at least another week. Archer, Joe Musgrove and Jordan Lyles are the only members of the original five-man rotation remaining. The Pirates successfully utilized the “opener” in a win Saturday night against the Padres in San Diego. It appears the Pirates will go there again Wednesday; a starter hasn’t been named yet. If the Pirates go this way, they’ll need Archer, Williams and Musgrove to go deep in their outings. If, for example, Archer leaves early, the Pirates would have to use a guy like Nick Kingham. Doing that that keeps Kingham from being the pitcher who follows the opener.
• Josh Bell has 14 home runs through 44 games, which are the most by a Pirates player since Hall of Famer Willie Stargell (15) in 1973. It’s also two more homers than he hit in all of 2018. Bell has worked hard on his swing, and it’s paying off. His 44 RBIs are tied with Cody Bellinger for the best in baseball. Bell’s .333 average is tied for sixth in baseball.
• There are so many numbers to illustrate what Bell is doing, but the bottom line is he’s hitting well. The question is what happens when teams start to pitch around Bell? Will he take his base and not let it frustrate him? Will he wait for the right pitch instead of forcing? Can the Pirates offer protection behind Bell to keep pitchers honest? Last season, Atlanta Braves first basemen Freddie Freeman led the league in walks for the first few weeks of the season. Teams didn’t fear any of the other hitters initially. That changed as Nick Markakis had a career year. Ronald Acuna emerged as an everyday threat. Ozzie Albies and Johan Camargo each hit. Teams couldn’t afford to give Freeman a free base because of his teammates. The Pirates will have to do that for Bell.
• Bell’s .333 batting average isn’t the best on the roster. That honor belongs to Melky Cabrera at .341. Cabrera doesn’t play every day, but, when he does, he puts in work. Can Cabrera continue producing? It still is not known when Lonnie Chisenhall and Corey Dickerson will return to the lineup. The Pirates will need Cabrera’s production and wisdom until Dickerson and Chisenhall return — and maybe beyond.
• Jordan Lyles had a magnificent performance by striking out 12 Friday against the Padres. The 28year-old has always had great velocity and spin rate on his pitches, but he couldn’t put it all together until this season. Lyles has a 1.97 ERA in his eight starts. Can Lyles continue to produce? If so, the Pirates have a good shot at hanging around.