5 QUESTIONS FOR 2019-20
The Pitt men’s basketball team begins its 2019-20 season Wednesday with a nationally televised home game against Florida State.
It’s a matchup that will provide an indication of where the Panthers are entering their second season under coach Jeff Capel. While a win could be a symbolically important moment for a rebuilding program, questions remain beyond a single early November game. Those same queries are the ones that will determine how much Pitt improves, where that improvement can take them and whether this season will be declared a success, a disappointment or something in between.
Though the list is hardly exhaustive, there are five questions worth asking as the new season begins.
1 How much will Pitt’s sophomore backcourt progress?
This time last year, Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowens were promising, albeit largely unknown, freshmen who Capel and Pitt fans hoped could lead a reeling program to a better future. Twelve months later, they’re the faces of what appears to be an ascendant force in the conference. Johnson and McGowens, especially the former, were revelations last season. Johnson led the team in scoring (15.5 points per game) and assists (4.5 per game) on his way to earning ACC all-freshman team recognition. McGowens, the program’s highest-rated recruit in six years, exceeded that hype at times, twice going for 30 or more points in a game, something no Panthers freshman had done before.
The natural assumption is that they’ll improve as sophomores, aided by the experience and lessons of their freshman seasons, to say nothing of what should be a better supporting cast. Just how much they’ll improve is of paramount importance for the Panthers’ progress. There are obvious areas of growth. Both need to become better outside shooters, as Johnson went 35.2% from beyond the arc last season and McGowens 32.7%. Johnson will have to cut down on turnovers — his four per game led the ACC — though those can be attributed in some part to inexperience and shouldering an especially large offensive load for a team that still, for its sixwin jump, wasn’t very good. McGowens’ consistency will remain an issue until it isn’t, as he finished in double figures in only three of the 10 games following his 30-point outing Jan. 14 win against Florida State. In ACC games in which he was a bigger part of the team’s offense, attempting 10 or more shots, Pitt was 4-2. In all other games, it was 0-14.
The question of how good both players become this season also comes with the acknowledgement that a satisfactory season could send Johnson off to the NBA. In a mock draft released this week, The Athletic has him as the draft’s No. 44 overall pick while ESPN rates him as the 51st-best prospect available. There’s a historical precedent for him not staying at Pitt long. Before last season, all 15 all-ACC freshman honorees from 2016-18 didn’t stay at their respective school for all four seasons (including all six who weren’t one-and-done players).
2 Can this become a more competent rebounding team?
Rebounding was a constant struggle for Pitt last season, as a relatively undersized team had to vie for boards against longer, largely more talented opponents once conference play began. The Panthers were surprisingly good at getting offensive rebounds, but they gave them up on 32.8% of opponents’ missed shots, making them one of the 35 worst teams in the country in that category.
Au’Diese Toney performed admirably last season while playing slightly out of position, leading the team in rebounding with 5.6 per game, but at a lanky 6 feet 6, a successful team would need more and better options in that area. Terrell Brown continued to languish for long stretches last season, averaging 4.5 rebounds in 19 minutes per game despite being 6-10 with a 7-4 wingspan. In the offseason, teammates have praised his improved hands and strength, which could show themselves on the court. Beyond him, 6-9 graduate transfer Eric Hamilton should help, and contributions from 6-8 freshman Abdoul Karim Coulibaly could be crucial. Still, Pitt is almost certainly going to have to embrace the same strategy of sending three or four players to the glass that it employed last season.
“I’d love to be proven wrong, but, as of right now, it’s going to be gang-rebounding,” Capel said recently. “At times, we can be a little bit bigger this year than we were last year, but at times it will look similar.”
3 And what about outside shooting?
While the loss of Sidy N’Dir can’t be overlooked — having a productive graduate transfer coming off the bench to help a young backcourt is valuable — there was no bigger roster casualty for Pitt than the graduation of Jared Wilson-Frame, the team’s second-leading scorer at 12.7 points per game. Though a strong rebounder for a player his size, his biggest asset, by far, was his 3-point shooting, as he was the only Pitt player with more than five attempts to shoot 36% or better from deep. The Panthers were already questionable from beyond the arc, ranking 237th among 353 Division I teams in 3-point percentage, and if Wilson-Frame’s numbers were erased, they shot just 29.4%.
“It’s a big loss because of his ability to shoot the basketball and spread the defense,” Capel said. “I don’t know if we have one guy that can do that.”
If there’s one player that comes closest to that, it’s likely Ryan Murphy, a junior-college transfer who made 40% of his 3-pointers while a freshman at Charlotte in 2017-18. Johnson, McGowens and Toney all must to improve in that area. There are also freshmen Justin Champagnie and Gerald Drumgoole, both of whom have been praised as shooters.
4 Will they be able to avoid injuries?
Even with the influx of talent about which coaches and players have boasted, Pitt is still a notably thin team. As it stands now, the Panthers enter the season with a nineman rotation that, beyond that group, gets fairly desperate, with four walk-ons and junior Samson George, who played all of 74 minutes in two full college seasons.
That’s partially by design, as Delaware transfer Ithiel Horton has to sit and the coaches didn’t apply for a waiver for immediate eligibility, but also some injury misfortune. Senior forward Kene Chukwuka, a productive rebounder, underwent hip surgery in the offseason and is likely to miss a significant amount of time (perhaps even the entire season). That leaves Pitt with its current nine-man collection, five of whom are in their first year with the program. For now, it’s a perfectly fine setup — some teams use even smaller rotations, especially once conference play rolls around — but an injury or two will thrust the Panthers into a perilous position.
5 Can this team take the next step?
The first and maybe most important step came last season, when Capel took over a program that went winless in the ACC the previous season and led it to a 14-19 finish, including a 4-14 mark in conference games. Now, because of that, the discussion around the program shifts to much more fun, palatable goals. Given the team’s record last season and the players who are returning, a postseason appearance of some sort appears attainable.
To make the National Invitation Tournament, Pitt would, at the very least, have to finish with a non-losing record and though criteria for it varies year to year, the 20-win mark seems like a good point to reach before NCAA tournament dreams materialize. Can it be done? Possibly, though there are factors working against it, namely a 20-game ACC schedule that removes what would have, in previous years, been two almost-certain wins against weaker competition.
Regardless of where it ends up, a postseason berth of any kind, considering where the program was not even two years ago, would be commendable.