Greats of sport face off, virtually
Only Triple Crown winners qualify
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Mike Smith rode Justify to horse racing’s 13th Triple Crown victory two years ago.
Smith will be home in suburban Los Angeles Saturday afternoon watching himself ride the colt in the Virtual Kentucky Derby competition between the 13 Triple Crown winners.
He laughed when I asked if Mike Smith, the spectator, will second-guess the tactics of Mike Smith, the virtual jockey, in this Churchill Downs production that will air at 5:45 p.m. Saturday on
NBC/WPXI.
Smith loves Justify, but he knows the horse to beat.
“I’m not going to give up on my horse, but how is anybody going to beat Secretariat [he 1973 Triple Crown winner]?” Smith asked.
That is similar to the scouting reports that I got from Elliott Walden, president and racing manager for WinStar Farm. Ditto for Doug O’Neill, a San Anita-based trainer who won the 2012 and 2016 Derbies.
“Secretariat could do it all,” O’Neill said. “I’m glad I don’t have to try to beat him.”
Me, too.
But horses as acclaimed as Citation (1948), Count Fleet (1943), Seattle Slew (1977) and American Pharoah (2015) will try. One sure thing about a virtual Derby is nobody will scratch.
I created a formula for handicapping the 13 Triple Crown winners who will compete Saturday, on a day when the 146th Kentucky Derby will not be run because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Comparing a horse that ran in 1919 against a colt that raced in 1973 or 2018 is tricky. It’s like projecting how Mike Trout would hit against Walter Johnson or how
Jack Dempsey would box against Muhammad Ali.
Somebody has to make himself look foolish. I volunteered. My record picking Derby winners can’t get much worse. I believe I’m 6 for 41, but who’s keeping score? I got lost in past performance charts Friday morning studying these 13 horses.
What categories and qualities can be compared?
Time of the race — but I concede that track conditions and timing equipment certainly varied.
Margin of victory seemed essential. But not everybody ran against an Alydar the way Affirmed was challenged in 1978.
I needed more. How about the winning percentage of each Triple Crown winner through the Kentucky Derby? Reward consistency. Sir Barton, the 1919 Triple Crown winner, lost his first six races, three times by at least 15 lengths.
I wanted more categories. So I added the percentage of races each horse finished fourth or worse through the Derby. Consider that a penalty for throwing in a clunker. The best of the best of the best should not have many off days.
This was my final category: Time over the final quarter-mile.
Nothing stirs thunder across the Churchill Downs grandstand like a colt moving like, well, a tremendous machine through the stretch. The final quarter-mile creates the memory of the Derby winner. Down the stretch they came. Guess who won? Secretariat, who looked good winning the 1973 Kentucky Derby, better winning the Preakness and impossibly great while dominating the Belmont Stakes. No surprise.
I would give Big Red the Virtual Derby by a length over Whirlaway. Affirmed finished a surprising third, followed by Seattle Slew. Secretariat set the track record 47 years ago, and no horse has done it better. Big Red covered the mile-and-a-quarter 1.8 seconds faster than Affirmed, who has the second-best time among Triple Crown winners.
Nobody did the final quarter-mile faster than Secretariat, either. He closed in 23.2, nearly a second faster than Whirlaway and more than a second faster than the other 11 Triple Crown winners. The only knocks against Secretariat? His winning margin of 2½ lengths over Sham tied for the seventh-largest among Triple Crown winners.
He also finished fourth in his first race as a 2-year-old at Aqueduct and third in the Wood Memorial, his final Derby prep.
If anybody could have beaten Secretariat, I would argue for Whirlaway. He came to Churchill Downs May 3, 1941 with seven wins and three seconds in 15 starts.
His winning time of 2:01.4 was a full two seconds faster than any Triple Crown winner who preceded him and still ranks third among the 13 champions. He also is one of four horses to win the first leg of the Triple Crown by eight lengths.
File Affirmed under Vastly Underrated. His winning time ranked second among the Triple Crown winners and the colt won 11 of his 13 pre-Derby races, several times against the formidable Alydar.
So make it Secretariat first, Whirlaway second and Affirmed third — with Seattle Slew holding off Count Fleet and Justify for fourth.
Enjoy the Virtual Kentucky Derby. Good luck picking against Secretariat.