It’s all Panthers in unique playoff
But which Pitt team of recent past prevailed?
Everyone misses football. So as we wait for football’s (probable) return in the fall, let’s have some fun.
Throughout the past few months of COVID-19 quarantining, many have discovered the website WhatIfSports.com. Basically, it features a database of sports teams, past and present — NFL, NHL, you name it. You can simulate games between any two teams, and using an algorithm based on statistics from those seasons, WhatIfSports will generate an outcome.
Of course, WhatIfSports isn’t the perfect way to compare teams. Everyone knows the best way to do it is in a bar with a few beers and friends. But with half capacities enforced in the “green phase” and many still hesitant to leave their homes, this is what we’re left with. So we might as well apply it to Pitt.
Unlike MLB and the NFL, the college football database only dates to 1996. So instead of matching up Johnny Majors’ 1976 title team and Jackie Sherrill’s 1980 squad, the best we can do is determine the “best” Pitt team of the past 25 years.
We created an eight-team bracket, then simulated the fake contests. WhatIfSports provides play-by-play, a box score, even a game MVP. The seeding was sorted using Sports Reference’s Simple Rating System, which takes into account average point differential
and strength of schedule. The rating shows up as points above or below average, where zero is the average.
Some notable teams didn’t make the cut. And only one will win.
Let’s get after it.
No. 1 seed: 2009 Pitt
Record: 10-3
SRS score: 12.75 Background: Dave Wannstedt’s 2009 crew is the most recent Panthers team to earn double-digit wins. Guided by Big East Conference offensive player of the year Dion Lewis and co-Big East defensive players of the year Greg Romeus and Mick Williams — as well as wideout Jonathan Baldwin and tight end Dorin Dickerson — this was Pitt’s most successful team of the 2000s. For perspective, the team’s SRS score ranked 27th on Pitt’s all-time list, with Sherrill’s 1980 team leading the way (24.46).
No. 2 seed: 2002 Pitt
Record: 9-4
SRS score: 9.99 Background: In Walt Harris’ sixth season, the Panthers logged their first ninewin campaign in 20 years. Pitt upset No. 3 Virginia Tech to ruin the Hokies’ perfect season in November, and the Panthers finished No. 19 in the AP poll. All four of Pitt’s losses came against ranked teams by a combined total of 24 points.
No. 3 seed: 2008 Pitt
Record: 9-4
SRS score: 8.87 Background: This season might be remembered by the beautiful ugliness that was the 3-0 Sun Bowl loss. Losses to Bowling Green and Rutgers shouldn’t have happened, either — which opens up the “whatcould-have-been” discussion. But LeSean McCoy went off (1,793 scrimmage yards, 21 touchdowns), the Panthers took down Notre Dame in four overtimes, and Wannstedt secured nine wins, building off Pitt’s stunning upset of West Virginia a year earlier.
No. 4 seed: 2016 Pitt
Record: 8-5
SRS score: 8.12 Background: Pat Narduzzi’s best team has entered. The 2016 squad ought to be remembered as a freewheeling, scoring machine (40.9 points per game) that could have had 10 wins. Still, the 2016 team, spearheaded by James Conner, Nathan Peterman and Quadree Henderson, beat Penn State in the rivalry’s return and stunned Clemson. Perhaps the 2016 Panthers can make some noise like they did in Death Valley.
No. 5 seed: 2010 Pitt
Record: 8-5
SRS score: 7.40 Background: Pitt was ranked 15th in the preseason AP poll but never lived up to the billing. The Panthers lost all three games as underdogs and endured a crushing, 3510 loss to West Virginia against a 3-point favorite. Right or wrong, failing to meet high expectations cost Wannstedt his job. We’ll see if Lewis and Ray Graham lead the 2010 team to more success in the WhatIfSports universe.
No. 6 seed: 2015 Pitt
Record: 8-5
SRS score: 6.32 Background: The Panthers did all right for themselves in Narduzzi’s inaugural season. They experienced a scare against Youngstown State in the opener but went on a fourgame winning streak in October. Tyler Boyd tallied 91 catches before leaving for the NFL, and Jordan Whitehead broke out with 109 tackles as a freshman.
No. 7 seed: 2001 Pitt
Record: 7-5
SRS score: 6.31 Background: Pitt lost five of its first six games and won its final six. Go figure. That included a Tangerine Bowl victory against Philip Rivers’ N.C. State. The Panthers’ first bowl win since 1989 came on the back of Antonio Bryant. The wideout followed up his 2000 Biletnikoff-winning season with nine touchdowns.
No. 8 seed: 2003 Pitt
Record: 8-5
SRS score: 6.10 Background: Perhaps if Pitt had a better record, Larry Fitzgerald would have won the Heisman Trophy. A September loss to Toledo took some steam out of Pitt’s season. The Panthers also allowed 52 points in a loss to unranked West Virginia in November. But Fitzgerald still demanded attention with 92 catches, 1,672 yards and 22 touchdowns in maybe
Notable teams missing the cut: 2018 (Record: 7-7, SRS score: 5.70), 2004 (8-4, 2.96), 2019 (8-5, 0.60).
Quarterfinals
(1) 2009 Pitt 33, (8) 2003 Pitt 0: That’s one way to get the bracket going. Dion Lewis trampled the 2003 team’s leaky rush defense to the tune of 203 yards and two touchdowns en route to MVP honors. Ray Graham added a touchdown, as did Oderick Turner. Fitzgerald caught five passes, but the 2003 squad stood no chance in this one.
(7) 2001 Pitt 20, (2) 2002 Pitt 7: We’ve got our first upset. The 2002 Pitt team had a solid secondary, allowing only 178.5 passing yards per game (18th nationally). But David Priestley, who threw for over 300 yards in only 2 of 12 games in 2001, eclipsed that mark with 313 yards and two touchdowns in an MVP performance. Of course, he was helped by Antonio Bryant, who had 93 receiving yards and three catches of 20 yards or more.
(3) 2008 Pitt 36, (6) 2015 Pitt 20: Tyler Boyd carried the 2015 offense, recording 105 receiving yards and scoring on the ground with a 27-yard touchdown run. But as he tended to do, LeSean McCoy took over. McCoy racked up 199 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Both scores, a 1yard rush and 11-yard reception, came in the fourth quarter after a Chris Blewitt field goal gave the 2015 squad a 2017 lead in the third.
(4) 2016 Pitt 41, (5) 2010 Pitt 27: At first, it looked like we might have a (minor) upset brewing. Tino Sunseri threw two first-quarter touchdowns, the second set up by a blocked punt. But the 2016 team pulled itself together. Canada’s offense generated 24 fourth-quarter points, highlighted by a 45yard touchdown by Henderson. Peterman, who threw four touchdowns including two to Scott Orndoff, was named MVP.
Semifinals
(4) 2016 Pitt 30, (1) 2009 Pitt 23: And the top seed goes down. Peterman won the MVP with 292 passing yards and three touchdowns (two to Jester Weah, one to Dontez Ford), and James Conner added 117 rushing yards. But this stunning win belonged to the 2016 defense. Avonte Maddox, Ryan Lewis and Oluwaseun Idowu picked off Bill Stull, with Lewis and Idowu’s interceptions coming in the fourth quarter. The 2016 defense also forced a turnover on downs with 90 seconds to go, securing Narduzzi’s team a surprising spot in the championship.
(3) 2008 Pitt 35, (7) 2001 Pitt 10: Dave Wannstedt’s 2008 team didn’t entertain an upset bid from Walt Harris’ 2001 team, jumping to a 21-3 lead by halftime. After a poor performance for the 2009 team in the earlier semifinal, Stull hopped in a time machine, went back to his 2008 self and offered a few pointers. Whatever he said worked, as Stull threw three red-zone touchdown passes. He also handed it off 33 times to McCoy, who rushed for 187 yards. Jabaal Sheard, Greg Romeus and Scott McKillop each sacked Priestley en route to a title berth.
Championship
(3) 2008 Pitt 52, (4) 2016 Pitt 31: Pitt’s 2016 defense surrendered 30 or more points in 9 of 12 regular-season games. But allowing a 50burger? In the championship? At least, it was entertaining for phantom fans. Narduzzi’s 2016 team actually led at halftime, 31-28, thanks to Henderson. The speedster had all four touchdowns in the first half (2 rushing, 2 receiving). But the 2008 team asserted itself in the second half. Phil Bennett’s defense forced four second-half punts, Dom DeCicco picked off Peterman, and Conner never got in a rhythm as drives stalled early due to incompletions. Connor Lee nailed a 36-yard field goal to tie things midway through the third, while Stull found Turner for a 14yard score on the next drive. In the fourth, it was all “Shady” McCoy. Pitt’s nimble bell cow found the end zone twice in the final 15 minutes, sealing a title for Wannstedt’s crew. Even though Stull tossed five touchdowns, McCoy’s 232 rushing yards were enough to earn him game MVP honors.
So there you have it: Pitt’s 2008 team is the best of the past 25 years. It’s science.
Well, not really.