Learning from 2020 would be wise move
What might roster look like in future?
Ke’Bryan Hayes has done his part, answering at least one key question involving the Pirates’ roster dating back to the start of the season. Barring a sizable setback for the exciting rookie, Hayes should play third base more often than not, likely for several years to come.
But what else do we know at this point?
Look around the diamond, and the Pirates are left with more questions than answers as we attempt to break down how 2020 performance plays into the future of the club.
To figure out what the Pirates’ depth chart might look like in 2021 and beyond, let’s raise a couple of key questions and also try to answer them.
• Who’s their starting shortstop?
At this point, Erik Gonzalez is hitting .279/. 305/. 451 and has been the Pirates’ best offensive player. He’s also been very good defensively, an upgrade over last year’s starter, Kevin Newman, who leads the club with six errors.
Gonzalez should, like Hayes, play the rest of the way. It’s also time to credit former general manager Neal Huntington; for all the criticism he received — plenty of it warranted — Huntington clearly saw something in Gonzalez. He wasn’t wrong.
The interesting part becomes the longer- term outlook. At 29 and under team control for two more years, opposing teams might also see value in Gonzalez, who has a full- season salary of just $ 725,000 in 2020.
With Newman, Cole Tucker, Liover Peguero and Oneil Cruz in their system, it would seem smart for the Pirates to act on any offseason interest they might have in Gonzalez. If that lacks, there’s nothing wrong with continuing to play someone who’s been productive.
• Who’s their starting
center fielder?
At this point, likely Cole Tucker. Anthony Alford looked good, then got hurt. Jason Martin hasn’t done much more than run well at this level, and the Pirates have shown scant interest in playing Bryan Reynolds there, aside from these past two games.
Tucker has looked comfortable, his development since the beginning of the season noticeable. The issue remains the bat. While Tucker has hit .242, he also has just four extra- base hits and four walks in 101 plate appearances. Among players with at least 50 plate appearances, only five have a lower average exit velocity than Tucker ( 82.4 mph).
Couple that with just one stolen base, and you’d certainly like to see more from a position that traditionally houses running threats and table- setters, guys with gaptogap power.
Alford, and how he recovers from elbow surgery, will be a wild card. The Pirates like him. But do they like him enough to finally make him an everyday player?
• Is Newman their starting second baseman?
Certainly seems that way at this point, and some clarity could come this offseason.
If Adam Frazier continues to hit the ball — he extended his hitting streak to 12 games Wednesday and has upped his average to .236 — then he might be the perfect example of general manager Ben Cherington resuscitating trade talks that didn’t net enough return on Aug. 31.
Frazier also hasn’t hurt himself by playing a decent left field, showing opposing teams some versatility.
If the Pirates can move Frazier, they can play Newman at second, Gonzalez at short and bring prospects such as Cruz, Nick Gonzalez and Peguero along when they want to.
But they do need Newman to give them more than .240/. 284/. 304, and they’d probably like to see him run more, as well. Granted some of it involves less opportunity because of where he’s hitting and how little he’s been on base, but Newman has gone from 16 steals in 2019 to zero this season.
• Is Josh Bell a first baseman or DH?
It certainly looks like the latter.
The Pirates started the season wanting to give Bell a chance to show that he can handle the position, but we’ve seen little to convince Shelton and others that Bell is an everyday fielder. Among first basemen with at least 100 innings this season, Bell’s fielding percentage (. 976) is the second- worst. Only Joey Votto and Jose Abreu ( both five) have made more than Bell’s four errors.
The bigger issue, of course, is Bell’s offense; he has just four home runs and seven extra- base hits in 39 games, resulting in a slugging percentage of .317 — alarming when you realize he slugged .569 in 2019 and .466 in 2017.
But the defensive improvements simply haven’t been there, and the Pirates might want to just let him DH and worry about hitting. Colin Moran has been serviceable defensively and has hit enough to stay in the lineup.
• Bell’s struggles mean they should trade him, right?
No way.
The urgency of the fan base to do this is weird, and here’s why: Bell’s under team control through the 2022 season, meaning the Pirates can wait probably until that July before they have to make a move.
Why, with Bell’s slugging percentage at the lowest of his career, would they do that now? It literally can’t get worse, meaning the Pirates would be selling an asset at its lowest point because … what, they’re mad he’s not producing more? It makes no sense. It’s reactionary.
If the Pirates determine that they can’t afford Bell — and that has not happened — then it still doesn’t make sense to trade him until either his stock is higher or they’re bumping their heads on that deadline. Neither appears close.
• Who plays right field? The joke here would be that nobody is playing it now thanks to Gregory Polanco’s .150/. 205/. 336 slash line, but there’s really nothing funny about that.
There’s little the Pirates can do.
They can’t buy Polanco out until after next season, which means they’re paying him unless they can get someone else to take his contract. Good luck with that, given the numbers listed above.
Best- case scenario is for Polanco to figure it out, which obviously doesn’t feel close, but the Pirates are giving him every opportunity right now to find himself — as they should.
If he does, maybe the Pirates can move Polanco and play someone else out there in 2021.
• Where are the kids? This a valid one. Anyone watching Dovydas Neverauskas the other night had to want to chuck the remote control at the television.
He’s 27 with a career ERA of 7.04 in 73 appearances, and he’s still getting chances? Why?
If Shelton and others are serious about this being a meritocracy, legitimately emphasizing learning and developing, there’s no reason to bury someone like Blake Cederlind in Altoona while others who aren’t producing get chance after chance.
The same can be said for Jared Oliva, a possible successor to Polanco in right.
• What will the starting rotation look like?
Another head- scratcher, for sure.
If you think about it, Cherington was smart to hold out when it came to Trevor Williams, Chad Kuhl and Joe Musgrove, starting pitchers who attracted interest at the deadline.
In the grand scheme of the Pirates’ rebuild — sorry, build — what does it matter if Cherington makes a move like this with a month left in the season or the offseason? Absolutely nothing. What matters is the return. Musgrove was hurt. It’s hard to move anyone who’s injured. If Cherington is banking on Musgrove proving he’s OK, great. That’s an option.
It would also be great if Williams cut his ERA down from 5.80, which comes a year after he pitched to a 5.38. Those numbers aren’t terribly transferable.
But the starting rotation is a huge question mark.