Pandemic makes quality depth even more valuable
Heading into the majority of winters over the past three and a half decades, the most important person within the Penguins franchise was a superstar center, whether he was leading the team into the playoffs or out of bankruptcy.
In 2020-21, it might be whoever is leading their infection control efforts.
In a strange, potentially stop-and-start season, their depth could be tested more than it was in 2019-20, when 36 players took the ice for them. Hopefully NHL teams have a better handle on COVID than their
NFL counterparts. But just in case, you might want to familiarize yourself with their minor leaguers.
The Penguins, even in what will be a shortened season, could see 30-plus players assume meaningful minutes due to injury or illness. Obviously, some will make more of a difference than others, starting with their superstar centers.
This brings us to the topic of the day, my annual ranking of the most important
players on the Penguins. The past two seasons, this list could only be found on my “From the Point” newsletter, which remains on a pandemic hiatus.
This is not just a list of their best players, though their overall impact is certainly a consideration. That’s why Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin went 1-2 last season. Consider this a ranking of the biggest X-factors, the players who by, say, bouncing back or bringing something new will determine whether they contend.
Note that this ranking is limited to the guys on the ice. So the general manager and coach, who will be subject to more scrutiny after consecutive postseason duds, are nowhere to be found. Ditto for their experts facing off with COVID.
Got it? Let’s go. The 12 most important Penguins heading into2020-21 are ...
12. Brian Dumoulin
The value of Dumoulin to the Penguins was evident in themiddle of last season when the stay-at-home defenseman missed three months after a freak ankle injury. With coach Mike Sullivan relying on Jack Johnson to skate alongside Kris Letang on the top pair, Letang’s advanced statistic stook a nosedive.
Assuming Dumoulin has completely recovered from that injury — the 29-year-old was steady enough during their brief playoff cameo — he and Letang should continue their fine blue-line partnership. They form one of the NHL’s better duos.
11. Bryan Rust
The speedy right winger broke out in 2019-20, his sixth season with the NHL club. His team-leading 27 goals were nine more than his previous career high, and with 56 points in 55 games, he averaged more than a point per game for the first time. He added eight power-play goals while remaining a pesky penalty-killer.
The Penguins heading into the season plan to keep Rust on Malkin’s wing. Which, duh. Those two were very good together last season, especially during the three months that Crosby was out. And it wasn’t just Geno banking shots in off of Rust’s shin guards. Rust displayed so much more poise with the puck.
Regression is probably coming from a scoring standpoint. His shooting percentage was 0.0055 higher than his career average. But if the Penguins get similar production in addition to his typical 200foot impact, I’m sure they will be pumped.
10. Jared McCann
Who is the real McCann? The guy who had 25 goals and 20 assists in his first 76 games with the Penguins? Or the one who didn’t score in the final 25 games of last season and was a healthy scratch for one game inthe postseason?
This offseason, the Penguins made a reasonable bet that McCann will land closer to the former, signing him to a two-year deal at $2.94 million per season.
The 24-year-old will likely skate on the third line. We’ll see if it’s at center or left wing. Regardless, McCann, who has wheels and arguably the best wrist shot in Pittsburgh, will be responsible for driving play alongside more defensiveminded linemates. Should his struggles continue, that line again will be a worry.
9. Jason Zucker
This may be a slight surprise given that he scored six goals with six assists in his first 15 games, but Zucker was still trying to fit in here when the pandemic paused the 201920 season in March. He had a new system, unfamiliar linemates and an abrupt move to a city a time zone away from hiswife and children.
The hope is that Zucker will
be settled in and comfortable when the puck drops on the 2020-21 season, whenever the heck that will be. There’s no question that he has the skills and strong skating to excel in Sullivan’s fast-paced system.
Zucker is expected to stick with Malkin and Rust. That trio didn’t deliver in the playoff loss to the Montreal Canadiens, but on several occasions they buzzed around the offensive zone for long stretches. They have a chance to be a really strong second line and mitigate concerns about the bottom-six scoring.
8. Mike Matheson
The third pair of Johnson and Justin Schultz was a disaster in the bubble. That prompted GM Jim Rutherford to buy out Johnson after two rough seasons and shove Schultz out the door into free agency. He replaced them with Matheson and Cody Ceci. Advanced statistics suggest they may not be any better.
The pressure will be on Matheson to prop up the third pair. Ceci and Chad Ruhwedel, who will battle for the last lineup spot, both work cheap and can be upgraded upon at the deadline. The Penguins are stuck with
Matheson. Acquired in the Patric Hornqvist trade, he has a $4,875,000 cap hit through 2026.
Maybe Matheson, who is quick with inconsistent puck skills, will thrive here like Schultz did during those backto-back Stanley Cup runs. But if the latest blue-line reclamation project turns out more like Johnson or Erik Gudbranson, the 10 to 12 minutes the third pair plays could end up torpedoing their Cup hopes again.
7. John Marino
Marino was a tremendous find for the Penguins, who acquired him last summer for just a sixth-round pick and watched him become one of their two or three best defensemen. The righty had 26 points and a plus-17 rating as a rookie.
In a year or two, Marino might replace Letang on the top pair. For now, they need himto continue to make a positive impact on their second pair. The depth on the right side is thin, so they can’t afford him enduring a sophomore slump.
6. Kris Letang
Letang, who turns 34 this April, was again one of the
league’s better blue-liners last season. But he has shown signs of decline, particularly when it comes to what he does when the puck is on his stick. Letang’s giveaway rate has increased in each of the past three seasons, climbing to a whopping3.05% in 2019-20.
The Penguins hope that bringing back assistant coach Todd Reirden, who was on the Pittsburgh bench from 2010 to 2014, will help them rein in Letang a little bit without sacrificing the high skill level and creativity that made him special.
That delicate balance could determine whether Letang returns to an elite level this season— and how long he will remain in Pittsburgh beyond 2020-21.
5. Kasperi Kapanen
The Toronto Maple Leafs gladly took a first-round pick from the Penguins in order to get Kapanen off of their books. During the past three seasons in Toronto, the Maple Leafs used others more frequently in a top-six role. His career hig his 44 points.
Rutherford, eager to reacquire the former Penguins first-round pick, eschewed an opportunity to wait it out for better trade offers and sent the No. 15 pick in this year’s draft to get Kapanen. It was his biggest addition this offseason.
If Kapanen can keep up on the Crosby line and flirt with 50-60 points, it will nudge the Penguins back toward contention. But if he is the same guy he was in Toronto, it’s tough to see how they got significantly better overall this offseason.
4. Jake Guentzel
When Guentzel hit into the end boards at PPG Paints Arena in December, it was the equivalent of slamming into the dashboard during a slow-speed car crash. He was lucky to glide to the locker room with merely a major shoulder injury.
He returned for the playoffs but was not 100%. He hopefully benefited from another four months off to strengthen that shoulder. But it is fair to wonder if the
injury will limit his effectiveness going forward. Shoulders are an important body part for a hockey player, particularly ones who can score 40in a season.
The 26-year-old will be one to watch closely early on this upcomingseason.
3. Tristan Jarry
The Penguins have a new No. 1 goalie after they sent Matt Murray, who was too inconsistent and injuryprone to warrant a financial windfall, to Ottawa.
Given that Tristan Jarry was an All-Star last season and comes much cheaper, it was certainly defensible for them to keep him over the two-time Cup-winner. But Jarry is arguably their biggest question entering 202021. It took him six years to establish himself as an NHL player, and he has just 57 starts under his belt.
We saw his ceiling last year — it’s real and it’s spectacular. But can he be counted on to bring it three nights a week for a full season? No one knows for sure.
2. Evgeni Malkin 1. Sidney Crosby
Once again, the Penguins can only go as far as their two stud centers can take them. The team has a solid supporting cast, which includes a few capable wingers. But, as currently constructed, the Penguins will be unable to win a fourth Stanley Cup title of this era unless Crosby and Malkin remain absolute studs.
Crosby is two years removed from a Hart runnerup season, and Malkin was one of the NHL’s most productive players in 2019-20. But they’re 33 and 34, respectively, and have been forced out and/or slowed by injuries in recent seasons.
Can they fight off Father Time, hockey’s only undefeated enforcer, for at least one more year? They both do that, and the Penguins will have a chance.