Penguins settle in middle
10 statistics for the first 10 games
The Penguins, three weeks into the season, have already played 10 games. That’s still a small sample size but enough to start looking for patterns in the statistical profile of a 54-1 hockey team that has been flummoxing so far.
They’ve often held the puck but often not the lead. Their top forwards have more goals in overtime or shootouts than they do at 5on-5. Despite a slew of blueline injuries and goals against, the Penguins rank among the league leaders in a few key defensive categories. And they are 1-4 in games decided in regulation.
Depending on which numbers you pull, you could make a case that they should have seven wins — or three.
So it makes sense they’ve landed in the middle.
To try to summarize what we’ve seen from Mike Sullivan’s squad through the first 10 games of 2021, we have identified 10 stats that stand out.
Please note that all of the statistics that follow are through Monday’s games.
79: total number of minutes the Penguins have held the lead in 2021.
The Penguins have allowed a league-high 15 goals in the first period. And only three NHL teams have given up more in the second. Combined, the Penguins have been outscored 28-19 by their opponents in the first two periods this season. In their 10 games combined, the Penguins have led for exactly 79 minutes.
The fact that the Penguins are in the middle of the pack in the East Division is pretty wild considering how much they have trailed in games this season. Only one NHL team, Nashville, has held the lead for less time, per Natural Stat Trick.
11: different defensemen who have suited up for the Penguins so far.
The Penguins have been decimated by injuries on the blue line, particularly among the guys who skate with a lefthanded stick. They have five blue-liners on one of the injured reserve lists right now. Their collective salary cap hits total about $16 million. That doesn’t include Kris Letang, who is “day to day.”
They have had to rely on an (impressive) rookie, a dude who hadn’t played in the NHL in seven years and somebody they signed off the street. The 11 different defensemen are tied with Colorado for most in the NHL.
37: goals allowed by the Penguins, the league’s fourthhighest total.
Even with all those injuries, the Penguins have actually fared well in a number of key defensive categories. They rank in the top 10 in shots from the slot against, chances allowed off the rush and zone possession time, per Sportlogiq.
But two areas in particular have really hurt them — the sheer number of odd-man rushes against and a number of premium chances off rebounds.
Those are reasons the Penguins, despite allowing the fewest shot attempts per game in the entire league, have given up the fourth-most goals.
.863: combined save percentage for Tristan Jarry and Casey DeSmith.
Another reason for all of those goals against is subpar goaltending from Jarry and, to a lesser degree, DeSmith. In their 10 starts, they have posted a save percentage above .900 only four times. Collectively, their .863 save percentage is well below the league average of .901 and ahead of only the Ottawa Senators.
It’s mostly the guys in front of them, you say? Let’s drill down a little deeper and look at how Jarry and DeSmith have fared on high-danger scoring chances. They rank 43rd and 35th, respectively, among 47 qualifying goalies in save percentage for those situations, per Natural Stat Trick. They can be much better.
71.9: shot attempts per 60 minutes of power play time for the Penguins.
We could have provided 10 stats alone on the punchless power play.
That unit provided reasons for optimism in the first few games under assistant coach Todd Reirden, but the Penguins are back to being static and predictable. After they went 0 for 19 on this road trip, they rank 23rd at 13.9%. Throw in the two shorthanded goals they’ve given up, and only five teams have a worse net power play rate.
As always, there are a bunch of factors at play here. But if over the past week you have woken up your pets by yelling “shoot the puck” at the television, the numbers have been screaming that, too. The Penguins rank last in the NHL in shot attempts per 60 minutes of power play time, per Natural Stat Trick.
9: power play goals allowed by the Penguins on 35 opportunities.
The penalty kill has been a problem, too. The 21stranked Penguins have given up at least one power play goal in eight of their 10 games. That included Chris Kreider’s game-winner in Monday’s 3-1 loss to the New York Rangers.
The Penguins have done an OK job staying out of the box, ranking in the teens in penalties taken. And they do have a pair of short-handed goals. But they have killed just 74.3% of their penalties after ranking 10th at 82.1% in 2019-20.
0: goals by Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin during 5on-5 play.
Much has been made about Malkin’s slow start — and rightfully so. He has one goal, on a power play. He has fired only 20 shots on goal. His 4.05 giveaways per 60 minutes give him one of the worst rates in the league. And opponents average 25.9 scoring chances per 60 minutes with Malkin on the ice at 5-on-5.
Crosby has struggled at 5on-5, too, though. He has also yet to score at 5-on-5 and he has a minus-5 rating. But in eight of 10 games, the Penguins earned at least 50% of the high-danger scoring chances while Crosby was on at full strength, per Natural Stat Trick. So perhaps puck luck has been a factor with the captain.
Still, the Penguins will go nowhere if these two don’t pick up their play.
12: goals scored by Penguins blue-liners and bottomsix forwards
Depth, specifically secondary scoring, was a worry heading into the season. But so far the guys currently in the bottom six and on the blue line have done their part offensively, scoring a dozen of the team’s 28 goals. Brandon Tanev, Teddy Blueger, Colton Sceviour and Jared McCann all have more goals than Malkin.
289: total hits for the Penguins, tops in the NHL entering Tuesday.
Hits can be a complicated stat because there isn’t a ton of context to them and they are subjectively tabulated by statkeepers in each arena. But the Penguins leading the league in that category certainly caught the eye, especially given that they more often than not have possessed the puck more than opponents.
Does this mean the Penguins have gotten “harder to play against” in this area? Or is Tanev, a one-man wrecking crew with 51 hits, inflating the team’s total? Truthfully, we’ve got no clue, but this stat is one we will continue to monitor.
1: regulation win for the Penguins, tied for the lowest mark in the NHL.
Add all of that up, and you get a team that has won just once in regulation. That’s tied with Ottawa, Detroit and San Jose, cellar-dwellers a season ago.
The Penguins have been buoyed by two OT game-winners from Crosby and by being one of three NHL teams to win multiple shootouts. So they are probably fortunate to be sitting fifth in the East Division with their .550 points percentage.