Centrists say GOP needs to win swing districts to retake House
WASHINGTON — Republican moderates have long been considered a dying breed in a party overtaken by the extremes of the tea party and Trumpism.
But even as the GOP embraces the far right in the post-Trump era, some Republicans see an overlooked opportunity to expand their ranks — in the center.
They point to moderate House Republicans in swing districts who were considered among the most vulnerable incumbents in the 2020 election but emerged with convincing victories that outpaced the top of the ticket. Those victories, along with wins from similarly minded Republicans who flipped seats held by Democrats, helped the GOP narrow the Democratic majority to the point that a net gain of five seats in 2022 would flip control of the chamber.
“That’s the profile of the candidate who will help us win the majority back,” said John Faso, who represented New York’s swingy 19th District from 2017 to 2019 and has since worked to increase support for center-right Republicans.
“We’re pretty maxed out on people who can win in red districts. What we need is people who can win in swing districts,” Mr. Faso said.
Mr. Faso is part of a group of former and current members and congressional staffers working to funnel donor support to centerright candidates in a handful of battleground districts through a super PAC, The Governing Majority Fund, that formed at the end of the 2020 cycle to support members of the center-right Republican Governance Group, an informal caucus in the House.
Formerly known as the Tuesday Group, the caucus sees itself as the governing wing of the party but has seen its influence wane in recent years. It does not have a formal roster, but many of the members its super PAC supported — including Republican Reps. John Katko of New York, Rodney Davis of Illinois and Jaime Herrera Beutler of Washington — were top Democratic targets in 2020.
Mr. Katko, for example, got nearly 9 percentage points more than now-former President Donald Trump in his district, while Ms. Herrera Beutler got almost 6 points more and Mr. Davis 4 points more, according to data compiled by Daily Kos Elections.
The group is also looking to flex its muscle in the new Congress, as Republicans willing to work on bipartisan legislation with the Biden administration see a new opportunity to increase their clout.
“Everyone is looking for authentic leadership,” Ms. Herrera Beutler said. “I would wager nine times out of 10, voters, regardless how partisan they are, want to see you get something done. They don’t want you to come here and just be a Twitter star.”
Other political action committees have formed in recent weeks to support Republicans who have pushed back against the party’s embrace of Mr. Trump.
That includes the Country 1st super PAC founded by Illinois Rep. Adam Kinzinger last month to back candidates willing to push back against Mr. Trump’s influence on the party. Another group, the Republican Accountability Project, connected to neoconservative Bill Kristol, pledged $50 million last month to Republicans who would work to “hold Trump accountable” for the Jan. 6 riots at the Capitol and support primary challengers to members it sees as the former president’s enablers.
It is too early to tell how much support such initiatives will have in the upcoming cycle, and they are up against strong headwinds. Democrats, who brush off efforts to reinforce the center right as “wishful thinking” from a fractured and rudderless GOP, are working to tie Republican moderates to the most extreme elements of their party.
And Mr. Trump’s own new Save America super PAC announced this month that it had raised $31 million since forming in November. That money could be used to support Mr. Trump’s preferred candidates in primaries or to oppose the 10 Republicans who voted in favor of impeaching him, along with anyone else who attracts the former president’s ire. Some of the Republican House members who voted to impeach Mr. Trump — like Liz Cheney of Wyoming and Tom Rice of South Carolina — are far from moderates.
Republicans are quick to point out that there is a distinction between resistance to Trumpism and the traditional description of a GOP moderate as fiscally conservative, socially liberal and pragmatic about reaching across the aisle to advance their legislative priorities.
“Over the past four years, we’ve confused what a conservative is versus what a moderate is, and we’ve basically reframed it all in Trump terms,” said Doug Heye, who was deputy chief of staff for former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., and communications director for the Republican National Committee.
“A moderate is defined now as anyone who is not in lock step with Trump; that has nothing to do with the issues,” Mr. Heye said.
But it is clear that the Trump era posed a major threat to center-right members from suburban districts. Twenty-three of the 30 Republicans who lost their seats during the “blue wave” of the 2018 midterms were more moderate than the party’s mean, according to a Pew analysis.
The Governing Majority Fund found a donor base eager to support those members.
It raised $1.5 million in a matter of months, much of it from construction unions and prolific Republican donors. The Laborers Union was the top donor, giving $500,000, while a fund controlled by the carpenters union gave $200,000 and the operating engineers $100,000. Paul Singer, a hedge fund billionaire, gave $200,000. Ronald Lauder, an heir to the Estee Lauder cosmetics company fortune, gave $80,000. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC closely linked to House Republican leadership, gave almost $96,000.
Most of that was spent on mailings and ads attacking the moderates’ Democratic opponents. More than $439,000 was spent against Dana Balter, who opposed Mr. Katko in New York; $305,000 against Betsy Dirksen Londrigan, who faced Mr. Davis in Illinois; nearly $175,000 against Jon Hoadley, who faced Rep. Fred Upton in Michigan; and $139,000 against Carolyn Long, who faced Ms. Herrera Beutler in Washington.
All of those Republican incumbents won re-election.