Who will win — and who should win — at the 2021 Oscars
Baseball season may be in full swing, but getting mad about awards shows is the real national pastime for cinephiles. After a year of uncertainty surrounding the present and future of movies, it’s finally time for the 2021 Academy Awards, broadcast live this year from both Los Angeles’ Dolby Theatre and Union Station (8 p.m. Sunday on WTAE). There are plenty of films with Pittsburgh ties for folks to root for — and then pout about when their favorites don’t end up taking home Oscars gold.
Here’s who you can expect to win — and, more importantly, who should win — at Sunday’s Oscars. Feel free to let us know Monday how wrong we wound up being.
Best Picture
Who will win: “Nomadland.”
Who should win: “Nomadland.” This might have been a different conversation if “One Night in Miami” and “Ma Rainey” had been nominated for best picture. But as it stands, “Nomadland” has the aura of an Oscars sweetheart that will take home the most coveted prize.
Actress in a Leading Role
Who will win: Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman.”
Who should win: Frances McDormand, “Nomadland.”
This is easily the closet of the four acting races. Carey Mulligan is the betting favorite on GoldDerby, Andra Day won the Golden Globe, and Viola Davis has picked up a few awards recently. Let’s go out on a limb and say the Academy will reward Mulligan to ensure “Promising Young Woman” receives some love. But this should really be Monessen High graduate McDormand’s third Oscar win for embodying the most fully realized character of this bunch.
Actor in a Leading Role
Who will win: Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Who should win: Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Let’s all agree now to start a respectful but loud hashtag campaign if the Academy snubs the late “Ma Rainey” star. Cool? Cool.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Who will win: Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah.”
Who should win: Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah.”
First of all, it’s nonsensical that Kaluuya and LaKeith Stanfield, the two leads of “Judas and the Black Messiah,” are both nominated for supporting actor. Pour one out for Carnegie Mellon alum Leslie Odom Jr., who may have snagged this Oscar if Kaluuya’s towering performance as assassinated Black Panther Party leader Fred Hampton was nominated in best actor, as it should be.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Who will win: Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari.”
Who should win: Yuh-Jung Youn,“Minari.”
Yuh-Jung Youn gave a fun, layered performance in “Minari,” a sweet film that could go home Oscar-less Sunday night. It would be fun to see Maria Bakalova eke this one out for her zany, fearless “Borat 2” performance, but it would be a bigger shame for “Minari” not to be recognized at all.
Directing
Who will win: Chloe Zhao.
Who should win: Chloe Zhao. Nobody should want to live in a world that snubs Zhao’s mesmerizing compositions in “Nomadland” for best director. So let’s not even contemplate the alternative.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Who will win: “Trial of the Chicago 7.” Who should win: Literally anyone else. The Oscars always have to throw in one winner that will annoy just about everyone who wasn’t actively involved in making that film. This scenario becomes even more plausible if “Chicago 7” ends up being shut out up to this point.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Who will win: “Nomadland.”
Who should win: “One Night in Miami.” “Nomadland” winning adapted screenplay for Chloe Zhao’s script would be a solid signal that it might dominate, which is looking increasingly likely. It would be nice, however, if Kemp Powers gets honored for adapting his own play to the screen, especially if “One Night in Miami” doesn’t win an original song statue.
Animated Feature Film
Who will win: “Soul”
Who should win: “Soul”
Pixar made a movie for kids (but really for adults) about the intricacies of the
human soul. Don’t overthink this one.
International Feature Film
Who will win: “Another Round.”
Who should win: “Another Round.” If you haven’t checked out this Danish film about four teachers trying to spice up their lives by becoming high-functioning alcoholics, you really should. It’s oddly a blast, and Mads Mikkelsen gave a best actor-worthy performance. “Another Round” is the heavy favorite for this one.
Documentary Feature Film
Who will win: “My Octopus Teacher.” Who should win: “Crip Camp.”
The sentimental film about a diver’s relationship with a wild South African octopus is probably going to prevail, but don’t sleep on “Crip Camp,” which chronicles the birth of the disabled rights movement through the eyes of its young leaders.
Short Film (Live Action), Short Film (Animated) and Documentary (Short Subject)
It would be a disservice to you and the filmmakers nominated in these categories if we pretended like we had any idea who’s going to win any of these awards. While every race is important and all the nominees should be proud of themselves, it’s not worth anyone’s time to pick blind. Cinematography
Who will win: “Nomadland.”
Who should win: “Nomadland.” It remains to be seen whether “Nomadland” will be the Oscars juggernaut many believe it can be. But it was the most beautifully shot film in this field, and it would be a crime against landscape portraiture to deny it of this award.
Visual Effects
Who will win: “Tenet.”
Who should win: *Shrug Emoji* This crop of films feels like a testament to how many CGI-heavy blockbusters pushed their opening dates back in hopes of a theatrical release. It would be surprising if “Tenet” didn’t snag this award for its mind-bending visuals, but if the Academy wants to get wacky here, “Mulan” or “The Midnight Sky” could sneak up on Christopher Nolan’s latest.
Sound
Who will win: “Sound of Metal.”
Who should win: “Sound of Metal.” This is one of the evening’s few locks. “Sound of Metal” is a film about a drummer who suddenly loses his hearing and goes out of its way to simulate exactly what he’s experiencing at every turn. It’s the rare film where you actually notice the sound design (in a good way), and it should be rewarded.
Production Design
Who will win: “Mank.”
Who should win: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.”
In this battle of films with Pittsburgh-native set decorators, bet on Jan Pascale and the 1930s Hollywood glamour she accentuated in “Mank” to narrowly edge out Diana Stoughton and the grittier 1920s Chicago recording studio in “Ma Rainey.” There’s no wrong answer here, although it would be nice to see “Ma Rainey” get some extra love because it was snubbed for best picture.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Who will win: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.”
Who should win: “Mank.”
It’s tough to fathom “Mank,” nominated in 10 categories, going home empty-handed. If it doesn’t win best production design, it could easily pick up makeup and hairstyling. Otherwise, “Ma Rainey” should take this one, or even a more left-field choice like “Emma” or “Hillbilly Elegy.”
Music (Original Score)
Who will win: “Soul.”
Who should win: “Soul.”
Trent Reznor, who was born in New Castle and grew up in Mercer, is nominated twice in this category for his work on “Soul” and “Mank.” There’s a 40% chance he goes home with a statue, and if he does it’ll probably be for his, uh, soulful score on Pixar’s most recent effort.
Music (Original Song)
Who will win: “Speak Now.”
Who should win: none of the above. If there was any justice, “Double Trouble” from “Eurovision: Song Contest” would be the favorite here. But alas, the Academy nominated the wrong “Eurovision” song, so we’ll have to settle for Odom winning for his “One Night in Miami” original.
Costume Design
Who will win: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.”
Who should win: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.”
“Emma” or “Mank” could play spoiler, but this is Hanover, Pa., native and CMU grad Ann Roth’s award to lose.
Film Editing
Who will win: “The Trial of the Chicago 7.”
Who should win: “Nomadland.” “Trial of the Chicago 7” was nominated in six categories, and this is a race it actually has a chance to take. The Oscar really should go to “Nomadland” for how expertly paced it is, but don’t be shocked if the Academy throws “Chicago 7” a bone with this one.