Climate report forecasts a hotter, wetter Pa.
Weeks of 90-degree days by midcentury
Pennsylvania’s average annual temperature is expected to be nearly 6 degrees Fahrenheit hotter in 30 years than it was between 1971 and 2000, according to the state’s latest climate change impacts report, which projects that the coming decades will be warmer and wetter with damaging consequences for human health.
For the first time, the report produced by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection evaluates and ranks the likelihood and consequences of six climate hazards if the world continues to release heat-trapping gases at its current rate.
Heavy precipitation and inland flooding are already the highest-risk climate hazards in Pennsylvania, but increasing average temperatures and heat waves will pose a similar threat level by midcentury, the report found.
In the decades between 2041 and 2070, more people are expected to get sick or die from heat-related causes. Farmers may have an easier time raising peaches, soybeans and poultry but may struggle with corn and dairy cattle, which will be stressed by the heat and flooding. Pennsylvania’s ski resorts are unlikely to be economically viable, and, especially in southern Pennsylvania, there will rarely be enough snow cover for cross-country skiing and snowmobiling.
“On our current path, the Pennsylvania our children and grandchildren inherit will be very different from the one we grew up in and continue to enjoy today,” Gov. Tom Wolf said. “We simply cannot afford to ignore the warning signs, and this report underscores the critical need to take action to reduce emissions and do our part to address climate change.”
While Pennsylvanians saw temperatures in the 90s only five days per year on average between 1971 and 2000, by midcentury the state is expected to top 90 degrees on 37 days each year.
In southwestern Pennsylvania, it is expected to be worse — with between 41 and 62 days over 90 degrees by midcentury and at least 70 days over 85.4 degrees.
“Pennsylvanians’ health will be at catastrophic risk from heat waves, which are the No. 1 cause of weather-related fatalities in the United States,” DEP Secretary Patrick McDonnell
said. “This has major implications for the many Pennsylvanians who work outside” or who have underlying health conditions or lack easy access to air conditioning.
The report projects an 8% increase in precipitation by midcentury, primarily in the form of more frequent heavy bouts of rain — the kind of weather that can increase the chances of flooding and landslides.
Pennsylvania has released several updates to its initial climate impacts assessment over the past decade, most recently in 2020, when it narrowed its focus to how a warming, wetter climate will affect livestock farming, Chesapeake Bay cleanup efforts and critical infrastructure.
The newest version of the report largely confirms previous projections, although the expected average annual temperature increase by midcentury is higher — 5.9 degrees F, up from 5.4 degrees F — which DEP attributes to updated modeling.
The report was produced with Penn State University, ICF International and Hamel Environmental Consulting.
For the first time, the report explicitly considers environmental justice and equity — how climate change will affect people differently based on where they live, where they work, their health and their income.
Extreme heat will disproportionately affect the 3.7 million people who live in Pennsylvania’s environmental justice areas, as designated based on race and poverty levels, the report found. Residents of such areas will be nearly twice as likely as the population as a whole to experience high numbers of days that top 90 degrees F.
Rafiyqa Muhammad, a Harrisburg resident on Pennsylvania’s Environmental Justice Advisory Board, said the impacts of climate change are already clear in freak storms and punishing heat waves.
“Living this every day in environmental justice cities and communities, we need to take action immediately. We can’t wait until midcentury.”
The report recommends prioritizing several areas for adaptation:
• Reducing human health risks from extreme heat, especially for vulnerable populations.
• Supporting the agriculture, recreation and tourism sectors, as well as forests and wildlife, as they transition to a warmer climate.
• Reducing flood risks to infrastructure and communities.
• Helping low- income households cope with increased cooling costs.
• Lessening the risk of damage from tropical storms and landslides.
DEP will produce an updated climate action plan later this year, with specific strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions 80% by 2050 to try to avoid the worst of the projections. The plan will also suggest ways to adapt to climate shifts that will be the repercussions of past and ongoing emissions.