Projecting players to protect
Writers engage in expansion exercise
Ron Hextall has been mum about which Penguins he plans to protect from Wednesday’s expansion draft. We have educated guesses but won’t officially find out until the weekend, after teams submit their protected lists to the new Seattle Kraken and the rest of the league.
In the meantime, we decided we would steal Hextall’s comfy GM chair for a moment, kick back our feet, swivel around a little bit and share which players we would protect if Mario Lemieux was crazy enough to let us run the team.
Who’s we? Pittsburgh Post-Gazette beat reporters Matt Vensel and Mike DeFabo and columnist Ron Cook, game-day regulars at PPG Paints Arena.
All three of us opted to protect seven forwards,
three defensemen and a goalie instead of eight overall skaters and a goalie. And while we agreed on most of the players we would keep, there were a few differences. So we explained the rationale behind our personal protected lists.
We also projected which guy the Kraken would grab in each scenario.
Finally, these protected lists are somewhat based on the personal preferences of each of us. But there is some actual intel buried in here. So enjoy, let us know which of us is the smartest and feel free to share your lists, too.
Matt Vensel Penguins beat reporter
• Forwards: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust, Brandon Tanev, Teddy Blueger and Kasperi Kapanen
The first four guys are nobrainers. Tanev and Blueger are quick calls for me, too. Tanev is a guy who can provide a spark on a random Tuesday in January and help you win playoff games in May. He is also integral to the team’s off-ice chemistry. Blueger has become an effective shutdown center and added 22 points in 43 games last season. The final forward spot comes down to Kapanen and Jeff Carter. Carter is the more useful player to Pittsburgh for 2021-22, especially with Malkin out indefinitely. But I’ll gamble that Seattle passes on the 36-year-old and I will instead keep Kapanen, an imperfect middle- six winger but a tradable asset.
• Defensemen: Kris Letang, Brian Dumoulin and Cody Ceci Letang and Dumoulin are the easy ones. And young blue-liners John Marino and Pierre-Olivier Joseph are exempt, so no need to worry about protecting them. No one else is a priority. Mike Matheson had a nice first season here and fellow lefty Marcus Pettersson is wellrounded with perhaps a little more room to grow. Unfortunately, both have pricey, long-term deals that eat up too much cap room relative to their level of performance. Ceci is an unrestricted free agent but he is someone whom the Penguins should and will consider resigning. I’ll keep his rights, which could maybe be traded for a future asset if we can’t afford him.
• Goalie: Tristan Jarry Protecting Jarry is not endorsing him as my No. 1 entering 2021-22. I just don’t want to be caught without a goalie when the record screeches on the offseason game of musical chairs. I still hope to bring in a veteran with some semblance of a playoff pedigree to push or potentially outright replace Jarry on the roster.
• Seattle selects: Jared McCann.
I crossed my fingers that Kraken GM Ron Francis would take one of these bigger cap hits off our books. But they pass on Matheson, Pettersson and winger Jason Zucker and roll the dice on McCann. The former firstrounder has speed, a wicked wrister, versatility and a reasonable $2.9 million salary. The Kraken hope that the 25year-old finally puts it all together on his fourth NHL team.
Mike DeFabo Penguins beat reporter
• Forwards: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust, Brandon Tanev, Kasperi Kapanen and Jeff Carter
The Penguins might be willing to play a game of chicken with Seattle and assume the Kraken will not select a 36-year-old who has just one year remaining on his contract. In fact, I’d expect them to take this bet and leave Carter exposed. But if I’m playing GM? That’s too big of a gamble now that we know Evgeni Malkin underwent significant offseason knee surgery that will force him to miss the beginning of the season. Who knows when Malkin will actually return? Who knows how effective he’ll be at 35 with a wonky wheel and a disrupted offseason program? The Penguins need a reliable insurance policy. Carter is exactly that. Carter fit in seamlessly in the dressing room after he was acquired at the deadline and made his presence felt on the ice, too, scoring 13 goals in 20 games, including playoffs.
• Defensemen: Kris Letang, Brian Dumoulin and Mike Matheson
There’s an argument to be made that the Penguins should leave both Pettersson and Matheson exposed and try to entice Seattle to take one of those long, expensive contracts off their hands. However, the way the Penguins’ speed-oriented system highlighted Matheson’s strengths makes him a player that I wouldn’t want to lose for nothing.
• Goalie: Tristan Jarry
Jarry’s postseason performance didn’t inspire a lot of confidence. But where will the Penguins be if Seattle selects their No. 1 netminder? I’d still try to add a goalie to challenge Jarry for starting time or possibly even supplant him. But knowing he’s on the roster gives the team more options and a safety net.
• Seattle selects: Teddy Blueger.
Give the 26-year-old center credit. He’s almost always the last player on the ice at practice, fine- tuning his game as he adds an offensive dimension to what’s already a consistent defensive game. But let’s not make him out to be more than he is. He’s still, more or less, a fourth-line center on a team filled with talented forwards. The Penguins would have a mucheasier time replacing a fourth-line center than a second-line center like Carter.
Ron Cook Post-Gazette columnist
• Forwards: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust, Kasperi Kapanen, Brandon Tanev and Teddy Blueger
Only the final spot was difficult for me: Blueger or Jared McCann. I’m gambling the Kraken won’t take Jeff Carter at his advanced age even though he would be a perfect leader on a young team. It would be nice if Seattle would take Jason Zucker and his inflated salary off the Penguins’ hands, but that isn’t going to happen. I went with Blueger over McCann because he is more qualified as a center.
• Defensemen: Kris Letang, Brian Dumoulin and Mike Matheson
The Penguins don’t have to worry about losing much on the blue line. Matheson and Marcus Pettersson are more than expendable because of their high salaries, but the Kraken won’t be interested in either player. It’s good that John Marino is exempt from this draft. I see him coming back next season and having a good year. Getting bigger and tougher on defense should be Ron
Hextall’s No. 1 off-season priority. Opponents go virtually untouched in front of the Penguins’ net.
• Goalie: Tristan Jarry Penguins management insists it still believes in Jarry despite his playoff flameout. I wasn’t buying any of it until someone I trust in the organization told me that the coaches and players know the truth about Jarry – that he was injured late in the season, didn’t get to practice before the playoff series against the Islanders and lost his edge. I still have my doubts and want to see the team bring in a veteran goaltender to challenge Jarry for playing time. That wouldn’t be good news for Casey DeSmith, who is a solid No. 2 netminder. Who knows? DeSmith might have given the Penguins a better chance against the Islanders if he hadn’t been injured.
• Seattle selects: McCann. Sadly. The Penguins won the NHL’s most rugged division last season so you know they are going to lose a good player in the expansion draft. That will be McCann. I will hate to see him go despite the fact he came up small in the postseason the past two years. I see him as a solid NHL player for many years.