• Pa. cases outpace number from same time last year,

State’s case count soars over last year at this time, but vaccination rate may be reducing death toll

Weekly case totals of COVID-19 in Pennsylvania are more than three times higher than they were this time last year, according to data from the state Department of Health, as the more contagious delta variant threatens to spread even further following the holiday weekend.

Experts interviewed by the PostGazette said they believed traveling and other activities during Labor Day could lead to more infections in the coming weeks, but the Pittsburgh area may largely be spared from deaths and hospitalizations due to high vaccination rates in the region.

“We have a pretty decent vaccination rate, so that hopefully will help cut back on the amount of cases we see, but more importantly that should help a lot with hospitalization rates,” said Dr. Matthew Moffa, an infectious disease doctor with Allegheny Health Network.

With approximately 58% of all residents vaccinated, the Allegheny County Health Department on Tuesday reported 245 new cases of COVID-19 and logged one more death from the virus. There have been 11,918 cases and 2,069 COVID19 deaths in Allegheny County.

Between Aug. 27 and Sept. 2, there were 17,273 positive cases reported statewide, according to the health department’s COVID- 19 Early Warning Monitoring Dashboard. In 2020, there were just 5,502 new cases reported between Aug. 28 and Sept. 3, according to the dashboard.

The Department of Health reported Tuesday that there were 10,462 additional COVID-19 cases between Saturday and Monday, plus 2,536 new cases on Tuesday. Statewide, there have been 1,324,720 confirmed cases of the virus.

Unvaccinated people make up the majority of those hospitalized, and are largely the only ones who are developing COVID-19 symptoms serious enough to send them to the intensive care unit, Dr. Moffa said. If infections do rise in the next two weeks as a result of holiday activities, hospitalizations will likely lag behind.

While breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated people do happen, they are rare and less likely to lead to serious illness. The vaccine is the most effective way of combating the virus and putting it in the rear view mirror, said Dr. Lee Harrison, a professor of medicine and epidemiology at the University of Pittsburgh.

“The bottom line is: COVID is nasty,” said Dr. Harrison, who also chairs the Allegheny County Board of Health. “Even if you know somebody who had a mild case, there are lots of people that have an absolutely miserable time with this disease. It is not to be messed with.

“So you have a horrible disease, and a safe and effective vaccine,” he continued. “And so, in my mind, there’s virtually no question that the risk of not getting vaccinated far outweighs any theoretical risk of getting vaccinated.”

Holiday travel in particular could be a factor in whether or not Labor Day leads to a new surge, with more than 2.1 million people going through airport checkpoints on Friday, according to data from the Transportation Security Association.

By comparison, 2020’s Labor Day weekend travel peaked at 968,673 travelers on Sept. 3.

“It’s not just while people are traveling, but that you’re meeting a whole lot of new people, increasing your chances that at some point you’re picking up the virus, and it’s a very contagious variant,” said Dr. Theo Vos, a professor of health metrics at the University of Washington. “That risk is much higher. Then you go home, and you are the one introducing it into your smaller circle.”

There were 56 new COVID-19 deaths identified by the Pennsylvania death registry between Saturday and Monday, with a total of 28,408 Pennsylvanians dead from the virus.

Even as virus deaths increase, their rise has not been as dramatic as the uptick in cases. According to data from the New York Times, the seven-day average of COVID-19 deaths on Monday was 26. On the same date in 2020, it was 14.

The rate at which new cases have risen also has slowed down. Although this week’s total infections were up by 1,346 compared to the previous seven days, the last two weeks saw respective increases of 2,205 and 2,301.

Even as the delta variant brings more cases, all three experts urged that the best way to turn the tide against the pandemic is to get vaccinated.

“If the vast majority of the population said, ‘I get it, I’m going to go get vaccinated,’ we would see an enormous blunting of the pandemic really, really quickly,” Dr. Harrison said.

While the U.S. was vaccinating millions per day earlier in the year, the process to get vaccine hesitant people immunized has been painfully slow, he said.

And although COVID-19 may never be eradicated entirely, widespread vaccinations could allow the world to return to normalcy by reducing hospitalizations and deaths.

“The idea is [to] get people vaccinated as much as we can,” said Dr. Moffa. “Protect those who are vulnerable so that when, inevitably, you get exposed to it, you either have no symptoms or you have the sniffles.”