Florida football fights to stay at an elite level
It hasn’t been an easy season for Florida football.
The seven Football Bowl Subdivision schools representing the Sunshine State have a combined 21-28 record, and none of the three Power Five conference programs — Miami, Florida State and Florida — are ranked in The Associated Press Top 25 poll. That hasn’t happened since 2011, when Al Golden and Jimbo Fisher were early in their tenures with the Hurricanes and Seminoles, respectively.
A decade later, Miami and Florida State are trying to make it work with Manny Diaz and Mike Norvell. And while results have largely underwhelmed so far, things are cautiously looking a bit brighter for the Hurricanes and Seminoles.
Miami, which visits No. 17 Pitt Saturday, started its season the way most expected. The Hurricanes lost their opener to Alabama, and did so in blowout fashion. That, along with D’Eriq King’s season-ending injury, snowballed into a 2-4 record. Miami fell to Virginia on a missed field goal and to North Carolina for a third year in a row.
All the while, Diaz — a respected defensive mind in the college football world — is calling plays for a unit that allowed 36 points per game against its first five FBS opponents. In that stretch, his seat went from mildly warm to red hot.
Miami did pull off a nice win last week, beating No. 18 N.C. State at home. Freshman quarterback Tyler Van Dyke threw for 325 yards and four touchdowns, breathing some hope into what was otherwise a lifeless team.
It’s only one game, of course. Even if Diaz and the Hurricanes win out and finish 8-4, coaches have been fired with better records — especially at programs such as Miami, supported by fervent lettermen who were a part of a national championship recent enough to hold the team to that standard, regardless if that’s fair or reasonable.
Miami’s remaining schedule is manageable, though. The Hurricanes are projected to win four of their final five games, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. The exception is this Saturday’s contest against Pitt. But this year’s iterations of Georgia Tech, Florida State, Virginia Tech and Duke shouldn’t scare Miami, perhaps providing some light at the end of the tunnel for Diaz.
For Norvell, that light is a tad brighter. After opening 2021 with four losses, including a dismal defeat to Football Championship Subdivision program Jacksonville State, Florida State is on a threegame winning streak. The Seminoles topped an improved Syracuse. They beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill. And they dominated Football Bowl Subdivision doormat Massachusetts by 56 points.
Tougher tests are ahead. According to ESPN’s FPI, Florida State is a projected underdog in its remaining games — at Clemson, vs. N.C. State, vs. Miami, at Boston College and at Florida. Go from 3-4 to 3-9, and boosters might not be so forgiving.
For Norvell and Diaz — maybe more so the latter — their on-field product the next two months could determine their futures. At least Norvell currently has the 10th-best 2022 recruiting class in the country, according to Rivals. Diaz doesn’t even have that to hang his hat on with Miami ranked 57th nationally and 11th in the ACC.
If both survive this season, are Diaz and Norvell the right coaches to make Miami and Florida State national players again? Maybe. Maybe not. But both have a spark right now, which is more than either could say a month ago.
Numbers game
314.8: Duke’s passing yards allowed per game against FBS teams. Only three teams — Tulane, FIU and Georgia Southern — have allowed more. And the thing is, Duke’s numbers might get worse. The Blue Devils face Wake Forest’s Sam Hartman (19 TDs, three INTs) this weekend before playing host to Pitt and Kenny Pickett (23 TDs, 1 INT) next Saturday. Pickett and Hartman rank sixth and seventh nationally in passer rating.
Keep an eye on
Jaylan Knighton: Miami’s second-year tailback is showing why he was a blue-chip prospect with offers from Alabama, Ohio State and Clemson. Knighton’s season started slow after serving a four-game suspension. But ever since Miami starter Cam’Ron Harris was ruled out for the year, Knighton has made the most of his opportunities. The 5-foot-9 playmaker had 331 scrimmage yards (175 rushing, 156 receiving) on 46 touches the past two weeks against North Carolina and N.C. State.
Game of the week
North Carolina at No. 11 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., NBC): Virginia’s trip to No. 25 BYU is intriguing. Bronco Mendenhall returns to Provo, where he coached for 12 seasons, and he brings with him Brennan Armstrong (3,220 passing yards, most among FBS quarterbacks). But NFL prospect Sam Howell playing in Notre Dame? North Carolina’s slide from a preseason top-10 team to an October squad with three losses dulls the matchup. But this could be a really fun game.