PENGUINS vs. HISTORY

What characteristics did the NHL’s past dozen Stanley Cup champions share? ❡ This week, I combed through team-level data, from scoring and special teams down to hits and blocked shots and penalties, in search of statistical commonalities shared by those Cup teams. Eventually, I narrowed it to 13 analytic indicators. ❡ We’ll call that our Stanley Cup checklist. ❡ What we found was that nine of the past 12 champions, including both back-to-back Penguins teams in 2016 and 2017, checked 11 or more of those 13 boxes. Two of them, the 2016 Penguins and 2021 Lightning, were a perfect 13 for 13. ❡ Do the Penguins have a regular-season statistical profile similar to recent winners? Let’s go category by category on our Cup checklist to see how they stack up:

Possess a top-six offense or defense

Eleven of the last 12 champions have excelled on at least one side of the puck. The exception was Washington in 2018. The Capitals are one of the three anomalous teams in this exercise, checking only eight of these 13 boxes but still finding a way to win it all. By their standards, that was a mediocre regular season. The Penguins do rank in the top six on one side — and it may surprise you that it’s not offense. They are fifth in the NHL at 2.65 goals against per game.

Goal differential at or above plus-25

This ties into the previous stat, obviously. But this ensures there’s a counterbalance where a team wasn’t a disaster on the other side of the puck. For the purposes of proration, plus-25 basically equals a plus-0.3 differential per game. Based on that, 10 of the last 12 winners reached that rate. So do these Penguins.

Expected goals percentage over .525

This underlying statistic is the best one publicly available for determining whether a team drives play. Nine of our 12 champs had an xG% over 52.5, per Natural Stat Trick. Only one was below 50%. Again, it was that quirky Capitals club. The Penguins as of Friday had an xG% of 53.5 which was sixth in the league.

Employ at least one 30-goal scorer

Only three of these Cup teams did not have someone get 30 or more goals during the season, including the defense-first Kings in 2012 and 2014. Pittsburgh already has one in Jake Guentzel. Sidney Crosby and Bryan Rust may hit 30, too.

Have at least five score 15 or more

Scoring depth might be even more important than having a bona fide sniper. Only one of the past dozen champions did not have at least five regulars score at a rate of 15 goals or more. Last season, the Lightning boasted nine. Six Penguins have already surpassed 15. Four more are in double digits.

Get at least 30 from defensemen

Some of our recent Cup winners have gotten more goals from their blue line than others. The Blues in 2019 are an example, scoring 46. But there appears to be a baseline level of production that teams need from defensemen. Eleven of our teams got at least 30. The Blackhawks in 2015 were just one shy. With 10 games remaining, the Penguins are on pace to surpass that mark.

Solid goals saved above expectation

Goals saved above expectation (GSAE) is a statistic from MoneyPuck that uses shot location and other variables to determine whether the goalie allowed more or less goals than the average NHL goalie in those circumstances. Nine starters from our 12 championship teams posted a GSAE per 60 minutes over 0.2. Tristan Jarry is one of 13 qualifiers to clear that threshold, per MoneyPuck.

Penalty kill success rate above 80%

This one is self-explanatory. Eleven of our Cup teams were above this baseline and the other, your 2017 Penguins, were just a whisker below at 79.8%. This season’s club has one of the league’s top kills at 86.0% as of Friday.

Giveaway rate below eight per 60

Puck management is important. Just ask Mike Sullivan. Careless teams don’t often chug out of the trophy. Only three of the past 12 winners averaged eight or more giveaways per 60 minutes. Both of the back-to-back Cup teams for Pittsburgh were below that mark, as are Evgeni Malkin and the Penguins in 2022.

Faceoff win percentage above .500

There is a thought that the value of faceoffs is overrated. So I was surprised to see that all but one of our Cup teams won more faceoffs than it lost. The exception was the 2017 Penguins. Pittsburgh has a 51.0% success rate this season.

Throw at least 20 hits per game

Admittedly, there is no one stat that encompasses the essence of physicality. But this is the best we’ve got. And eight of these 12 teams did deliver at least 20 hits per game, including the Penguins in 2016 and 2017. As an aside, every one of the teams played at least one defenseman who topped 220 pounds. The Penguins have none of those this season. But they average 24.6 hits.

Tough to beat if leading after two

Hanging onto leads is kind of important. And nine teams won at least 88.9% — eight out of nine — games in which they led after two periods. Three of them were perfect. This season’s Penguins team is at a suitable 90.3%.

Finish the regular season strong

It feels as if most Cup winners enter the playoffs with momentum, and the numbers back that up. All but two of the past 12 champions had a winning percentage at or above .625 from Feb. 1 on. Several were significantly higher. This is a big area of concern for the Penguins. This is the one box they don’t check, having gone 14-10-3 since Feb. 1, which is a points percentage of .574.