Past results are no guarantee of future winning(s) in NFL
Unpredictability remains NFL’s top commodity
Near as can be determined from the relevant schedules, calendars, and photographical evidence from deep space, this weekend finds us near enough to the midpoint of the NFL season to trigger the obligatory midway column of observations and/or projections, some highly dubious as if that would stop me.
In professional football, it’s always borderline fool-hardy to project any outcome atthe halfway point of anything, except maybe for that timeon the afternoon of Oct. 16,when you said, “Since the Steelers are leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-9 at half time, I predict that both teams will score the same number of points in the secondhalf and the Steelers will win 20-18, and further that Mitch Trubisky will be sprung from the bench to posta passer rating of 142.4 while Tom The Greatest Quarterback Of All Time Brady struggles along at 87.8 againsta Steelers secondary madeup of people known only to their immediate families.”
Remember saying that? Of course not, because it’s preposterous and no one would ever say that, and, of course, it’s precisely what happened.
That ridiculous home victory was the only one of this Steelers season so far, and save for a theoretically softer schedule following the off week, there is no projection rootedin logic that diverts thisseason toward anything buta rolling disaster.
Consider that when Mike Tomlin’s team opened the 2022season, the aforementioned Trubisky was drawing7-2 odds to be the first quarterback benched, the secondmost-unflattering odds among the league’s 32 projected starters at the most important position. After a frank discussion with wide receiver Diontae Johnson at halftime Oct. 2, Trubisky was, in fact, the first quarterback benched. This week, Kenny Pickett, his replacement, drew 2-1 odds at betonline.ag to become the next quarterback benched, again thesecond worst in the league after David Mills of the Texans (7-4) and before Ryan Tannehill of the Titans (3-1).
This autumn was destined tohave a different feel to it after18 years of virtually uninterrupted Roethlisbergerian competence, but this is ridiculous.The last guy to throw a touchdownpass around here got traded to the Bears two days later. So long, Chase Claypool.No wonder Pittsburgh’s point differential (minus77) is worst in the league,25 points south of the Detroit Lions. When you’re almost halfway through the seasonand you’ve gotten more touchdowns from the free safety than from the 37million-dollar wideout, well, I’mnot sure there’s even a point in completing that sentence.
Can I defer? That’s what the Steelers have done in 2022. They’ve deferred.
Elsewhere of course, the typical chaos has proceeded a pace: The Eagles are unbeaten(8-0) and the Vikings wouldbe if they hadn’t made the mistake of playing the Eagles (losing 24-7) and the Bills are widely acknowledged to be unstoppable in that ultimately doomed way of theirs. Buffalo’s got the league’s best defense, the best point differential (plus 105), andthe best chance at inevitable January heartache for which there is no known metric. Still, the Bills would dearly love to replace it with February heartache if it’s all the same to the Chiefs, the Ravens, and the Dolphins. Spareme your Jets, your Bengals, your Titans; they’re not going anywhere.
There are but a handful of surprises across the NFL standings with a half a season to play. The Falcons and Giants are better than expected, both mostly as the result of very low expectations. The Broncos, Packers, and Colts are very much worse thanexpected, as are the Tampa Brady Bunch.
If the season to date has crystallized any one thing, it might be that Tom Brady really, really doesn’t want to beat home and that, surprisingly, he really, really doesn’t want to start his NFL analyst career even though it could bring him an estimated$30 million or more per season.
The quarterback and his wife, international supermodel Gisele Bundchen each announced their divorce last week on Instagram, like ya do, and Tom “opened up,” about it on his podcast in his typical not opening-up-about-anything way.
“Weall have our unique challenges in life,” Brady said. “We’re all humans. We dothe best we can do.”
Thankyou Captain Fantastic.
Wehave just enough space left to honor our Approximate Halftime Player of the Year for 2022, and it has to be Carolina Panthers’ wideout DJ Moore, who hauled in a62-yard touchdown pass to tie the game in the final seconds last week against Atlanta, yanked off his helmet, jumped into the crowd, finished off a still relatively subdued celebration, and got flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct because you can’t remove your helmet as just about everyone knows.
The resultant unsportsmanlikeconduct penalty moved the game-winning extrapoint try back far enough so that Panthers kicker Eddy Pineiro could missit cleanly, and the Falcons won in overtime, because of course they did.
This probably wouldn’t havehappened if the NFL had instituted the rule a columnist friend of mind suggested decades ago: Any player who removes his helmet must play the rest of the game without it.