Numbers that have defined the Pirates’ busy offseason
Nine key stats break down Pittsburgh’s winter business
Whether you like their moves or not, this offseason has included a fairly steady drip for the Pirates, who followed a strategical firstbase fix with additions designed to improve their starting pitching, outfield depth and hopefully ensure there’s not another revolving cast of characters behind the plate in 2023.
Will the moves work? It’s impossible to know now.
Carlos Santana should be important leadership and mentorshipwise for a young club with a couple prospects from the same country (Dominican Republic). There are perfectly fair questions about Austin Hedges’ offense, though from a defensive perspective, he should be an above-average addition.
It will be interesting to see what the Pirates get from guys like JiMan Choi, Connor Joe and Vince Velasquez, who may stand to benefit from the opportunity they’ll get in Pittsburgh. There’s also the looming possibility of a Bryan Reynolds trade, which would obviously be the most impactful transaction of the offseason, should it occur.
“I do think we’re deeper,” Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said earlier this week over Zoom when asked to assess his offseason. “Last year, there were too many days where we had one or more spots in the lineup that just weren’t producing much. It’s really hard to score runs and win games that way, so we’re trying to deepen it out in a way that makes sense for us.
“Again, our young player emergence and development will always need to be a part of that. It’s been similar on the pitching side.”
With that in mind, let’s examine nine numbers that have framed the Pirates’ offseason thus far.
98.3: That’s the percentage of times opposing teams shifted against Santana in his left-handed at-bats last season (356 of 362). Between Santana and Choi, the Pirates are hedging their bets that the banning of the shift will help select players produce more. The upshot is that Santana’s average exit velocity along with his walk, whiff, chase and strikeout rates remain strong.
.188: Speaking of calculated gambles, that’s Choi’s batting average over his final 60 games (since July 1), to go along with a .617 OPS. Was it a fluke, the elbow injury the Pirates believe is now behind Choi, or the 31-year-old showing signs of decline? We’ll find out. But the Pirates need Choi to supply some sort of middle-of-the-order presence.
100: Miles per hour on the fastball of Rule 5 acquisition Jose Hernandez, who was one of the more underrated pickups of the offseason. Hernandez, who finished at Double-A, came on late in 2022, when he allowed a .135 batting average against and sported a 2.93 ERA over his final 15 outs. It’s no guarantee, obviously, but a lefty with that heat and a solid slider? Worth a shot.
2.99: Career-best rate of walks per nine for Vince Velasquez, who’s expected to occupy a rotation spot in 2022. The righthander’s career to this point has included plenty of peaks and valleys, but it’s interesting that he’s seemingly found some better control while producing the lowest batting average against (.235) and WHIP (1.23) of his career in 2022.
50 (ish): As in millions of dollars. Two days before MLB’s Winter Meetings, the Post-Gazette
broke the story of Reynolds’ trade request. It may affect the 2023 team, and it may not, depending if the Pirates choose to move now. It’s also not blanket unhappiness from Reynolds in Pittsburgh. It’s more a sizable gap in contract talks and an acknowledgement that it’s probably not going to happen here.
2.92: That’s the ERA for Dauri Maureta over his final 20 games of the season with the Reds in 2022, the righthander walking seven and striking out 23 in 24 2/3 innings. When combined with the 48.9% whiff rate that Maureta had on his slider, there are certainly some tools there when it comes to the reliever they acquired for Kevin Newman. Like Hernandez, it’s a low-risk, high-upside move.
.338: That’s Connor Joe’s on-base percentage last season, which amazingly would have been better than every member of the 2022 Pirates except for Reynolds (.345). The Pirates love Joe’s ability to get on base, keep his strikeout total low and play a couple different positions. He’s shown power at various points of his career, too.
“From the beginning of the offseason, one of our goals was to improve our onbase ability,” Cherington said. “Connor’s ability to play first base and the outfield and be a really good matchup against left-handed pitching in particular gives us on-base ability and gives [manager Derek Shelton] options. Again, as we’ve talked about lengthening the lineup, we could see him playing a lot.”
53.2: Average appearances for another lefty reliever, Jarlin Garcia, in his five full MLB seasons. The Pirates needed another reliable setup option, and they got it with the former Marlin and Giant who’s still only 29. Also doesn’t hurt that Garcia has a career 3.61 ERA to go along with solid strikeouts (7.2) and walks (2.9) per nine.
75: Since making his MLB debut in 2015, nobody has more defensive runs saved than Hedges (75). Not Buster Posey (61) and not last year’s catcher, two-time Gold Glover Roberto Perez, who’s second with 74. Hedges can catch, but can he hit? Also since his rookie year, nobody has fared worse than Hedges (54) in wRC+, a metric designed to distill run production down into one number, where 100 is considered average.
Hedges has spent a bunch of time this offseason on his swing and approach. He does have 18- and 14-homer seasons on his ledger, and the Pirates are hoping for some sliver of that production.
“There’s no hiding the fact that we really appreciate and value his defense,” Cherington said. “He’s been elite at that part of the game, so that was certainly a major factor. We think he can produce more offense.
“Our hitting group may have some things that can help. It’s a new environment, new people and a fresh start. We’re hopeful he can be certainly a professional at-bat in the lineup.”