Flu cases plunge statewide, lessening ‘tripledemic’ fears

After an unusually early and strong start, flu cases in Pennsylvania took another steep drop through the first full week of January, the latest period for which statistics were available.

It marked the fifth consecutive weekly decline after an explosive start that saw cases soar past the peaks of the worst flu seasons in eight years or more in Pennsylvania, according to data from the state Health Department.

Pennsylvania hospitals were caring for about 463 flu patients as of Jan. 9, roughly half the level of early December, according to the Hospital and Health System Association of Pennsylvania.

RSV, a respiratory illness that raged in Pennsylvania during the fall and early winter, raised fears that a “tripledemic” of illnesses — flu, RSV and COVID-19 — might overwhelm hospitals.

But RSV, which is especially dangerous for young children, also has been declining for weeks.

COVID-19 has also so far failed to produce anything approaching a worst-case surge — even with the fast rise of the highly contagious XBB.1.5.

Pennsylvania hospitals were caring for 1,567 COVID-19 patients as of Wednesday, down about 200 from a week earlier, according to the hospital association. About 200 patients needed intensive care.

That’s a stark difference from a year ago, when COVID-19 hospitalizations, including a large proportion needing ventilators and intensive care, prompted the National Guard to send personnel to some hospitals, and the state to set up overflow sites.

Still, hospital officials stress they continue to deal with far more flu hospitalizations than during recent years, while also grappling with staffing shortages that reduce the number of usable beds.

“Even though we have had a mild tripledemic that is receding, we still have hospitals that are very busy,” said Dr. John Goldman, a UPMC infectious disease specialist.

Moreover, hospitals say they can’t rule out the possibility of late- season surges of illnesses such as flu or COVID-19, so it’s too early to know whether Pennsylvania is out of the woods.

Flu season normally peaks in Pennsylvania around February and, while it’s rare, some years have brought a second, late-season surge.

Even with the decline, Pennsylvania flu cases remain unusually high, hovering near the levels of the worst flu seasons of the past eight years.

The state has registered 62 flu-related deaths, with 49 involving people 65 or older, and two involving people 18 or younger.

Pennsylvania was averaging about 20 COVID-19 deaths per day as of Wednesday, according to tracking by The Washington Post.