Five pressing questions for reeling squad
The Penguins, with their losses against Winnipeg and Carolina over the weekend, officially passed the midpoint of the regular season. They have won exactly 21 of their 42 games.
They entered Sunday ninth in the Eastern Conference.
It has been a strange trip to mediocrity. Mike Sullivan’s squad started strong then lost seven consecutive games for the first time since Sidney Crosby’s rookie year. They climbed the standings with another stellar December, renewing hope and interest in the team. But they have now won just two of nine since Christmas.
The Penguins’ identity has started to come into focus. It’s not a
pretty picture.
It is a vastly experienced but maddeningly inconsistent club that has difficulty defending and closing out games and has been far too reliant on its top two lines and special teams to build momentum and score the lion’s share of goals.
Sullivan was asked a few days ago to summarize what he has seen so far.
“We’ve had moments when we’ve been really competitive. We’ve won a lot of games. We’ve had stretches where we haven’t handled the ebbs and flows of the game,” he said. “I know we are capable of being better. We’ve all got to work at that, and we are. We know what our game looks like when we’re at our best.”
Here in mid-January, even the most homerific local hockey fans probably have a tough time picturing the Penguins as currently constructed lifting the Stanley Cup. But there is still time for one of the NHL’s top coaches to enact change and for Penguins general manager Ron Hextall to make tweaks, if he wants.
The Penguins must address these five pressing questions to keep their long playoff streak going — and maybe even win a series for
the first time in five years.
1. Forward lines production?
Hextall’s offseason decision to keep the top six intact looks good so far.
Even with Crosby and his linemates scuffling since Christmas, the Penguins still boast two of the league’s 25 most productive trios in scoring rate, per MoneyPuck.
But the top-heavy approach of re- signing Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell while also keeping Jason Zucker in the fold left few resources for Hextall to piece together an impactful bottom six.
He was unable to pull that off.
Quality forward depth has been the biggest issue so far. For the brief period when Ryan Poehling, Teddy Blueger and Josh Archibald were all healthy, the Penguins had the makings of an effective checking line.
But their third line, centered by the 38-year-old Jeff Carter, has rarely provided the Penguins a boost.
As a result, Crosby and Malkin and their four regular wingers are shouldering a tremendous burden, physically and mentally, to keep the Penguins in contention.
That may catch up to a group of guys whose ages range from 28 to 36.
Even if just one of them falls off or gets injured, it could doom the Penguins.
2. Third line in house?
Despite having a number of possibilities, that does not appear to be the case.
Let’s start with the center spot, where Carter, a Hextall favorite, just isn’t providing the same level of juice that he did in his first calendar year in Pittsburgh.
Blueger is a reliable checker and ace penalty killer, but his offensive numbers have nosedived this season. Poehling was a nice find for Hextall, but he is likely nothing more than a fourth-liner.
The Penguins believe Drew O’Connor is better on the wing. And top forward prospect Sam Poulin has taken a leave of absence.
Perhaps Sullivan would permanently shift Carter to the wing or drop him down to the fourth line if he had a clearer alternative at center. Alas, he does not.
As for the wingers on that line, Kasperi Kapanen’s contributions remain sporadic.
And Danton Heinen is showing why no other team signed him last summer after the Penguins relinquished his restricted free agent rights.
Kapanen has scored one goal in his past 17 games. Heinen last lit the lamp back on Oct. 22.
O’Connor is getting an opportunity on the third line now.
He would be hardpressed to do any worse. It might be time to see what Valtteri Puustinen, the leading scorer for WilkesBarre/Scranton, can do if their cap situation allows a call-up.
Barring a breakout from one of those two, it’s hard to see Sullivan and the Penguins piecing together a difference-making third line with what they have now.
3. Top-10 defense?
The Penguins were one of the league’s stingiest teams in 2021-22 and finished in the top half of the league in goals against in the three seasons prior to that.
This season? That currently rank 16th in the league in goals-against average.
Leaky goaltending has been one factor, and we’ll get to that in a moment.
But after they ranked highly last season in Sportlogiq stats such as shots from the inner slot, offensive zone puck possession and cycle chances allowed, the Penguins defense has sunk into the middle of the pack in many metrics in 2022-23.
Goal prevention is a team-wide endeavor, and Sullivan will tell you it starts with the decisions made while the Penguins have the puck.
But it hasn’t helped that they have not at any point had all three defensive pairs firing on all cylinders.
Brian Dumoulin and Kris Letang performed so poorly together they had to be split up. Jeff Petry had a bumpy start to his Penguins tenure and got injured soon after he found his stride.
Pierre-Olivier Joseph has cooled off in recent weeks. Ty Smith, Mark Friedman and Chad Ruhwedel all suited up over the weekend.
Marcus Pettersson and Jan Rutta have been the two consistent contributors.
We’ll see if the Penguins can come together defensively when Letang and Petry return to the lineup. They certainly have capable bodies on their blue line.
4. Goaltending?
As well as Tristan Jarry played in November and December, advanced statistics say the goalies have still given up more goals than expected this season.
That speaks to how poorly Jarry performed during Pittsburgh’s lengthy losing streak over Halloween, along with the ups and downs of backup Casey DeSmith.
Jarry has been out since the Winter Classic. Sullivan said Saturday that the team is hopeful Jarry will return to practice this week.
But there has been a significant drop- off from Jarry to DeSmith, who has won just five of his 16 starts.
The Penguins are seemingly locked into that duo for at least the rest of the season.
They believe in Jarry, and at the start of the season Hextall publicly stated interest in giving the twotime All-Star a contract extension.
DeSmith is under contract for this season and next, with an annual average value of $1.8 million.
It looks like Hextall and the Penguins are content to ride it out with those two, with Dustin Tokarski also in the organization if DeSmith’s inconsistency persists.
5. March 3 deadline?
The patient GM added to a contending club in his first two years, bringing in Carter and Rakell before the deadline in back-toback seasons.
Doing so this winter will be tricky given the salary cap challenges here and around the league.
As noted above, their current needs are apparent — at least one third-liner and a more reliable backup goalie. But this team may need to show Hextall something over the next few weeks to convince him they are worth the investment.
If their mediocrity continues, it might actually make more sense for the Penguins to pivot toward 2023-24, but that would be a tough sell to Crosby and Co.
It will be fascinating to see how all of this unfolds. But right now, three months out, it seems clear the Penguins need help if they want to go on a playoff run.