Contract Bridge

Declarer is occasionally faced with the problem of how to play a suit in which he has 11 cards and is missing the K-x. Should he play the ace and hope the king falls, or should he finesse?

The mathematical probabilities are not very persuasive. There is a 52% chance of the two missing cards being divided 1-1, but there is also a disturbing 48% chance of a 2- 0 division. The difference is thus very slight.

Since there is such a minute advantage in playing for a 1-1 split, declarer should look for other factors that may enter into his calculations.

Consider this deal where West leads a spade against six clubs. Despite the favorable lead into his A- Q- 4,

South must deal with the possibility that he might lose both a heart trick and a trump trick. If, say, he elected to lead a trump to the ace and either opponent had K-x, he could lose the slam if the heart finesse later failed.

To avoid this possibility, South should take the A- Q of spades right away and discard a heart from dummy, then ruff a spade. He next cashes the A- K of diamonds and is then ready to tackle the trump suit. He leads a trump from his hand, and, after West follows low, he finesses the queen.

He does this because if the finesse wins, he makes the slam, while if the finesse loses, he also makes the slam, since East would then be forced to return a heart or yield a ruff- and- discard.

Note that South is on solid ground even if West shows out on the trump lead at trick six. In that case, he goes up with the ace and plays another trump, trapping East in the same hopeless position.