Panthers must prep for counterpunch
Team seeking its first NCAA tourney victory since 2014
The date is set, and Pitt men’s basketball gets its chance to dance in March Madness during the play-in round against Mississippi State (21-12) at 9 p.m. Tuesday at University of Dayton Arena. Jeff Capel’s team that broke Pitt’s six-year drought from making the NCAA tournament now looks to win the program’s first March Madness game since 2014.
But to do that, the Panthers (22-11) must face themselves before they can defeat the Bulldogs. Their 1-3 finish to the season showcased a team that didn’t play the style of basketball that allowed it to go on a 20-5 run with five wins against teams that made the NCAA tournament and four Quad 1 victories. Pitt’s biggest key for Tuesday is to focus on itself, and get back to playing at the level that defined the team when it was at its best this season.
Top storyline
Resilience has been a theme for Pitt basketball’s resurgence this season. The Panthers bounced back from a 1-3 start to go 10-1 from November to early January and change the direction of the season. Pitt turned halftime deficits into wins against North Carolina, Virginia and Miami, among others.
The key to those wins was in-game adjustments to better attack the opponents’ strengths and weaknesses. But those adjustments did not come in time for Pitt to bounce back against teams Virginia Tech, Notre Dame and Duke in the ACC tournament.
However Mississippi State approaches Pitt, the Panthers must be prepared to counterpunch, just like they did in their best runs of the season.
“We haven’t defended well in about a month,” Capel said from Petersen Events Center on Sunday after Pitt’s seeding was announced. “It’s little things, but they end up being big things. We have to contest harder. We have to contain the ball more. When we have two on the ball, our rotations behind us have to be on point. The effort has to be more.”
Mississippi State is a talented team, but the Panthers’ top priority has to be getting their own level of play back to the standard that gave them a legitimate chance to win the ACC before their 2-3 finish to the regular season.
In Pitt’s first 26 games, the Panthers allowed 67.5 points per game. Had that rate been maintained, Pitt would’ve finished with the third-best points allowed per game average in the ACC behind Virginia and Duke, instead of finishing sixth at 70.5 points per game. After Pitt’s 77-58 win against Boston College on Feb. 14, the Panthers allowed an average of 81.7 points per game to opponents, a rate that, were it their season- long rate, would’ve ranked Pitt last in the conference.
“It’s about attention to detail,” Pitt guard Nelly Cummings said. “We have to come in and be focused, locked in and our desperation level has to be high. Everybody’s desperate at this time of the year. We have to play as hard as we can.”
“It’s our communication,” Pitt guard Greg Elliott added. “We can improve there, and our rebounding. There’ve been games when we’ve done a good job to contest their first shot, but they find a way to go get it. That’s not finishing a possession. We need to keep doing a good job to contest the first shot, then clean it up and get the rebounds.”
However Pitt does it, there has to be a rekindling of what made this team one of the toughest ACC teams to play from mid-November to mid-February.
Players to watch
Blake Hinson: Hinson tied with Florida State’s Darin Green Jr. with 91 made 3pointers as the most in the ACC. But in the ACC tournament, he made only three of nine 3-point attempts. That can’t happen. When Hinson makes three or more 3-pointers, Pitt is 11-4 this season.
The Panthers made 304 3pointers this season, second most in the ACC. Hinson and Elliott have led that charge. According to KenPom.com, Mississippi State allowed opponents to make 30.8% of its 3-point attempts, which was the 26thbest rate in the nation. If Hinson regain his effectiveness from beyond the arc, it will go a long way toward victory.
Fede Federiko: Federiko became Pitt’s dominant defensive presence for much of the season. But in recent weeks, teams have pressured him to be more detailed in how he defends against off-ball screens and the pick and roll. It’s provided challenges of late and definitely will be a target for the Bulldogs on Tuesday night.
He left Pitt’s game against Duke with an injured knee Wednesday, but the day before delivered one of his best performances of the season against Georgia Tech. At least defensively, he’ll need to put together a more positive performance against Mississippi State’s 6-foot-11 senior forward, Tolu Smith, who leads the team in scoring and rebounding.
Behind enemy lines
Smith is the key for Mississippi State. His 15.8 points per game was eighth-best in the SEC, and his 8.5 rebounds per game was second-best. Add in that he’s a proficient scorer with his conference-leading 57.6% field goal rate, and it’s no secret why he’ll demands attention.
Outside of Smith, Mississippi State’s offense is based on slowing the game and being efficient inside with fewer possessions. The Bulldogs’ 65.9 points per game was next-to-last in the SEC, and their 26.6% on 3-pointers was the worst mark in the country. Pitt’s plan for defending Mississippi State must limit the Bulldogs’ inside presence and force them to win with outside shooting.
Pitt will be facing one of the top defenses in the country. The Bulldogs allow just 39.3% of opponent field goal attempts made, which is 11th-best in the country. Expect 6-foot-7 junior guard Cameron Matthews to challenge Pitt’s guards, and for Smith to team with 6-foot-7 senior forward D.J. Jeffries to make scoring in the paint difficult.