Allegheny County needs more people. The next executive will have to attract them.
The biggest structural economic challenge faced by the next Allegheny County executive is simple to describe, but very complicated to address: restoring population growth. This will be the most important metric by which Rich Fitzgerald’s successor is judged, whether it is Democrat Sara Innamorato or Republican Joe Rockey.
That challenge is thrown into sharp relief by the comparative success of the county’s northern and southern neighbors, Butler and Washington counties. Supported by advantageous tax environments and positions on the Interstate 79 corridor, recent Census estimates show that these areas continue to attract residentsaway from Allegheny County.
The region’s urban core can’t compete on taxation, since outlying counties freeload on the amenities and infrastructure paid for by residents nearer the Golden Triangle. But Allegheny County can offer economic and lifestyle opportunities that far-flung areas can’t — that’s the comparative advantage county leadership should focus on developing. And that begins with ensuring more jobs are located within the county’s borders, and close to the county’s residential communities.
Chicken and egg
What comes first, jobs or residents? In the era of remote work, there’s an argument that attracting brick-andmortar workplaces shouldn’t be the top priority any longer. For instance, population growth in the Mountain West states of Idaho and Montana has been driven in large part by workers Zooming into Bay Area tech offices, and physical development has followed.
But that’s not the kind of economy Pittsburgh has ever had, or will ever have. Low-cost-of-living regions like southwestern Pennsylvania should get some bump from remote workers fleeing high-cost big cities. San Francisco and New York City topped the list of population losers since 2020, with7% and 5% declines respectively, butthose trends have already slowed.
The first thing that will attract people to Allegheny County — and encourage them to have children who, in turn, stay here as adults — will always be the expectation that the region’s economy will allow them to build a thriving life here. People want to see the kind of growth in the region that they want to see in their own lives. They don’t want to feel like they, or their children, will have to fight for their piece of a shrinking economic pie if they stay here.
An illusory recovery?
And that means attracting a broad base of employers — not just tech and education and medicine, but also manufacturing and construction. These are not vestiges from the past: Remember that in the years before COVID, Pennsylvania’s three nearest
Midwestern neighbors added 66,000 manufacturing jobs, while the Keystone State lost 300.
Still, the 2020 Census was cause for celebration in the City-County Building. Not only did Allegheny County end its 60 years of population decline: It picked up nearly 30,000 people, for an increase of about 2% during the decade. Meanwhile the City of Pittsburgh saw its population stabilize after 70 years, during which it lost 55% of its population.
But recent years, triggered in large part by the pandemic, have dampened that optimism. The county has given backsome of its population gains while losing tens of thousands of jobs during the pandemic. And while jobs have recovered, it’s been at slower pace than comparable regions — potentially a harbinger of further population losses in the coming years. Interestingly, the 2022 Census estimate shows the City of Pittsburgh holding its own while the county declines, suggesting that the county’s losses are coming from the suburbs,not the urban core.
Restoring optimism
The congestion, constant construction and sprawling development in southern Butler County, especially in Cranberry and Adams townships, may not be everyone’s cup of tea. But people and businesses continue to move there, many after having left or decided against Allegheny County. Butler’s favorable taxes are part of the reason, to be sure, but much of it is a simple snowball effect: Businesses want to be near where people want to be,and vice versa. And right now, that oftenmeans across the county line.
Reversing that trend will require practicalyet visionary leadership from the next county executive. It will mean tackling crime — both the perception and the reality — as well as navigating the treacherous waters of property reassessments in a way that treats property owners, both residential and commercial, as fairly as possible. It will mean continuing to invest in the amenities that set Allegheny County apart, such as its extensive park system and itsessential transit system.
But most of all, this turnaround will depend on the attitude and energy — not to mention salesmanship — of the next county executive. Here, the wisdom of term limits is manifest. Mr. Fitzgerald clearly maintains the remarkable energy to keep doing the job, and his popularity remains high. But likea coach whose pep talks have worn a little thin, the county is ready for a newvoice at the helm.
The 37-year-old Ms. Innamorato and the political neophyte Mr. Rockey offer high-risk, high-reward options for the region’s most powerful elected office. As voters consider these options, they should ask themselves: Who has both the plan and the passion to bring more people and businessesto Allegheny County? And who generates the kind of optimism that will keep families here for generationsto come?