‘Crash course’ in learning for prospects
Davis, Rodriguez improvement a crucial piece of team’s success in 2024
CINCINNATI — Oddly enough, chess became a focal point in the Pirates’ clubhouse at Great American Ball Park during the weekend.
Andre Jackson played against himself, physically moving to opposite sides of the board and drawing laughs from teammates. Endy Rodriguez struggled to find a partner. Hours before the largest comeback in franchise history, Henry Davis challenged Dauri Moreta — the best on the team — to a game.
As the Pirates’ 2023 season winds down, the strategic movement of pieces matters a great deal with this team — specifically Davis and Rodriguez, two of Pittsburgh’s
top prospects before graduating from MLB Pipeline’s list.
When assessing the Pirates’ options for next season, it’s important to underline, bold and italicize these two cases. Although so far Davis and Rodriguez have delivered on a fraction of their potential, there’s ample time left and important moves ahead.
“We have to give them a little bit of leeway because of what we’re asking them to do,” Pirates manager Derek Shelton said.
Davis was shoehorned into right field, a position he played for just 16 games in the minor leagues and not since middle school before that. He’s also done it while battling a right thumb strain since June.
Rodriguez, meanwhile, has been charged with learning an entire major league pitching staff on the fly — one that has changed a bunch due to injury, performance, trades and waiver claims. Plus, of course, the physical nuance of catching: blocking, throwing, framing, etc.
“It’s only gonna make him better in the long run,” Shelton said.
The defensive side has
been a mixed bag so far with Rodriguez. His blocking and receiving need work, but the throwing has been tremendous. Rodriguez ranks in the 79th percentile when it comes to Baseball Savant’s caught stealing above average.
His pop time (1.90 seconds) is better than all but five catchers, while the average velocity on his throws (81.9 mph) ranks 16th. When it comes to blocking and framing, Rodriguez ranks in the 33rd and 44th percentiles, respectively.
Rodriguez has also shown a propensity for handling pitchers well. There was a key mound visit with Carmen Mlodzinski on Saturday and David Bednar the night before that. Twice during Johan Oviedo’s last start, Rodriguez coaxed quick improvement out of his pitcher.
“That shows me that he’s taking a leadership role,” Shelton said.
The downside to Rodriguez’s development, oddly, has been his bat. Despite hitting .296 with a .895 OPS in the minor leagues, Rodriguez has hit just .211 with a .600 OPS in 53 big-league games, walking 8.0% of the time and posting a strikeout rate of 24.6%.
Breaking pitches have caused problems for Rodriguez, who’s hitting just .174 against them.
“It’s the big leagues,” Rodriguez said. “You have to adjust to everything. It’s the same game, but it’s harder. And quicker.”
Nobody knows that better than Davis, whose struggles in right field have been obvious. Among right fielders who’ve seen at least 400 defensive innings, only two have been worth fewer defensive runs saved than Davis ( minus- 9), per FanGraphs.
At the same time, Davis’ arm ranks in the 98th percentile; only six MLB outfielders have posted a better average velocity than Davis (95.0).
Having gotten to know both of these guys fairly well, I have little doubt they have the makeup to figure it out. They just need time.
“With the staff and information we have, there’s a blueprint,” Davis said, “things we need to do that are controllable that will lead to sustained success.”
Davis’ case is especially interesting, for a few reasons. One, he’s way more thoughtful than he lets on. His (often short) postgame interviews are usually the product of his intensity or, as a rookie, wanting to be seen and not heard. But there’s way more there.
Davis also knows that he’s only scratching the surface, especially on the offensive side.
In 57 big-league games, Davis has hit .214 with a .650 OPS that includes 16 extrabase hits and six homers, plus 21 RBIs and 26 runs scored. Fun moments? Sure. But still well short of his standard.
“I definitely had a taste of performing at a level that I expect myself to,” Davis said. “And then I didn’t. That’s really just an opportunity I can learn from. You get all that feedback. It’s gonna happen at some point.”
Any reaction to Davis’ offensive performance at this point should be tempered. Not only because of the injury or defensive challenges, but examine some recent No. 1 overall ( position player) picks and how they performed over 57 games:
• 3B Spencer Torkelson, 2020, Tigers: .181 average, .569 OPS, 11 extra-base hits, four home runs, 13 RBIs
• C Adley Rutschman, 2019, Orioles: .255 average, .798 OPS, 28 extra-base hits, five home runs, 19 RBIs
• SS Royce Lewis, 2017, Twins: .314 average, .903 OPS, 22 extra-base hits, 13 homers, 44 RBIs
• OF Mickey Moniak, 2016, Phillies (now Angels): .152 average, .477 OPS, five extra -base hits, three homers, nine RBIs
• SS Dansby Swanson, 2015, Diamondbacks (now Cubs via Braves): .243 average, .641 OPS, 13 extra-base hits, four home runs, 20 RBIs
It’s a wide range, sure. But it’s also proof that things can and will change. Davis and Rodriguez are in a fine spot, with considerable runway left.
“We talk about everything,” Rodriguez said of Davis. “I go to him because he has ideas. He comes to me and talks, and I try to help. We’re a team. We try to help everybody here.”
The offseason to-do lists for both, again, are fairly straightforward. Rodriguez must keep the ball in front of him and steal more strikes.
Davis has to learn the nuances of right field, things like breaks and reads, playing balls off the wall and transitioning to throw after fielding a ball.
“I definitely got a crash course for that, but that’s how you learn,” Davis said. “Same thing offensively. Any failure you have, you definitely learn more from that.
“I’d much rather — and I think Endy would agree — experience that now and have the offseason to put a plan in place. ‘This is what you need to do to perform at your highest level next year. Go do it.’”