Problems abound in AFC North
Division as wide open as it can possibly be
What is it Mike Tomlin likes to say when problems arise for his team? Oh, yes: “Nobody cares. They’re glad we have them.”
The Steelers have problems, all right, topped by a comically horrendous offense that ranks third-worst in the NFL at 15.8 points per game (if you subtract two defensive touchdowns and a safety, that number falls below 13). But here’s the thing: Everybody in the AFC North has problems. And not small ones.
As we head into late October, coming off the Steelers’ bye week, I would call this division as wide open as wide open can be. The four teams are separated by half a game. There would be no surprise winner. There would be no surprise last-place finisher, not even the two-time defending division champion Cincinnati Bengals, who are 0-2 in “The North,” as Tomlin calls it, while the Steelers are 2-0.
Let’s take a closer look at a highly problematic group of football teams …
Bengals (3-3) BIGGEST PROBLEM:
The schedule. It’s the most difficult in the league for their final 11 games. In fact, the Bengals are the only team in the NFL whose remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage above .600. They are the only team in the AFC North that has to face the Chiefs this season (New Year’s Eve at Arrowhead Stadium). Their next two games are at San Francisco and home against Buffalo. Which is a long way of saying that even if the Bengals continue to improve, they could be in big trouble.
OTHER PROBLEMS: A stunningly inept offense that goes back to Joe Burrow’s pesky calf — he simply hasn’t looked like himself — and major difficulties running the ball (last in NFL). They’ve also
had serious troubles stopping the run.
WHY THEY’LL WIN IT: Burrow & Co. will find their groove coming out of the bye week, beat the 49ers in San Francisco and take off from there (there’s no way they’ll continue at a clip of just 16.7 points per game). He did look healthier against Seattle in his last start. Going 7-4 in their final 11 would bring the Bengals to 10 wins. Would that be enough?
WHY THEY WON’T:
That schedule, baby. The remaining road games go like this: 49ers, Ravens, Jags, Steelers, Chiefs. The only team on the schedule currently under .500 is the Vikings.
Browns (3-2) BIGGEST PROBLEM:
Quarterback, which is not a good place to have your biggest problem. Deshaun Watson had his best game since arriving in Cleveland, completing 27 of 33 passes and posting a 123.4 rating against the Titans on Sept. 24 — but he hasn’t been seen since, except on the sidelines. Latest word is that Watson “can’t put a timeline” on his return from a rotator cuff strain. The Browns, despite a robust defense that is off to a historically great start, simply won’t survive with P.J. Walker or somebody else at quarterback. They got lucky when San Francisco missed an easy field goal last game.
OTHER PROBLEMS:
Losing Nick Chubb was a massive blow, although Cleveland can still run it. Whether they can pass enough to win, even with Watson, is highly questionable — and they gifted the Steelers a win, a ridiculous meltdown that could come back to haunt them.
WHY THEY’LL WIN IT:
Watson returns and is at least functional, the defense continues to pound people into oblivion, and the Browns take advantage of the easiest remaining schedule in the AFC North, one that includes the Bears, Broncos and Cardinals.
Because they’re the Browns, and because their quarterback
WHY THEY WON’T:
play will kill them on the way to no more than nine wins. I still believe if the Browns had simply knelt on the ball for the entire second half, they would have beaten the Steelers.
Ravens (4-2) BIGGEST PROBLEM:
The schedule. It’s the secondtoughest in the NFL from here on out. The Ravens were the only team in the division to draw the Miami Dolphins, and that was before we knew the Dolphins would have a historically prolific offense. How’s this for a finishing stretch: at Jacksonville, at San Francisco, Miami, Pittsburgh (the Steelers have beaten the Ravens six times in their last seven tries).
Injuries, for one, although the Ravens have been getting healthier. A still-middling passing game that has produced just five touchdowns. A crop of receivers that might have had the worst game in NFL history two weeks ago at Acrisure Stadium, and a head coach that sometimes loses his mind in close games. If John Harbaugh had simply kicked field goals (which are essentially touchdowns in the Steelers-Ravens rivalry) against the Steelers, his team would be 5-1 overall, 3-0 in the AFC North — all road games
OTHER PROBLEMS:
— and firmly in the driver’s seat.
WHY THEY’LL WIN IT:
The offense should improve under new coordinator Todd Monken, they have their final three divisional games at home and they have a buttkicking defense that features an improved pass rush.
WHY THEY WON’T:
Harbaugh … and the schedule, which resumes with the Lions this weekend.
Steelers (3-2) BIGGEST PROBLEM:
An unwatchable offense that continues to reach new depths under coordinator Matt Canada. I don’t think I need to go into details here. The quarterback is scatterarmed, the line stinks, the running game stinks and the Steelers hardly ever score touchdowns.
OTHER PROBLEMS:
Losing Cam Heyward, Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth sure hasn’t helped (not that Freiermuth was doing anything). The defense, which has won two games single-handedly, has been inconsistent against the run and pass (which doesn’t leave much else). Part of that could be all the time it spends on the field because of a useless offense that goes three-and-out with regularity.
WHY THEY’LL WIN IT:
Tomlin excels in winning close games, Kenny Pickett has a way of pulling games out late, and the Steelers will come out of bye like last year, rediscover the wonders of running the ball, welcome back their injured players and take advantage of the second-easiest remaining schedule in the division and 10th-easiest in the NFL — one that should include five and maybe six (Cleveland) disastrous quarterback situations. Or shall I say, more disastrous than their own. Oh, and they have already been handed two wins by divisional rivals. So charity counts, too.
WHY THEY WON’T:
Because they’ll piddle around .500, like always, lose to the Bengals twice and not score 30 points once.
So, how will they finish? I’m glad you asked … Bengals 10-7 Steelers 10-7 Ravens 9-8 Browns 8-9
Joe Starkey: jstarkey@post-gazette.com and Twitter @joestarkey1. Joe Starkey can be heard on the “Cook and Joe” show weekdays from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. on 93.7 The Fan