There will be a day after in Gaza. Here’s what it can look like.
In the throes of a bloody war, now might seem like the least opportune time to think of peace between Israel and the Palestinians. Not a temporary cease-fire or another uneasy truce but a durable settlement.
Yet Oct. 7 may be remembered as a hinge moment — such as 9/11 or Feb. 24, 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine — in which an unspeakable tragedy first traumatizes but then allows people to look at the world with fresh eyes.
To his credit, President Biden has started, pushing Mr. Netanyahu in remarks Tuesday to accept a day-after plan that would put the Palestinian territories on a path to eventual statehood. Given his support for Israel’s military effort and the diplomatic cover he has given Mr. Netanyahu’s government, Mr. Biden has more pull in Jerusalem than any other world leader.
Historically, Israelis have responded to terrorist attacks by increasing their support of right-wing parties. But this time appears different. According to one November poll, if elections were held tomorrow, Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition would decline from 64 seats to just 45 in the 120-seat chamber.
If these trends hold, the Biden administration will have more to work with than seemed possible just weeks ago. Israelis might, finally, move beyond the evasions and temporizing of the long Netanyahu era. Mr. Netanyahu, nicknamed “Mr. Security,” was not able to deliver on his core appeal.
An Israeli commitment to a twostate solution, however, is only a precondition for progress. After Hamas, Gaza will need an administrator until elections can be held and to be a part of future talks with Israel. The best — really, the only — option is the Palestinian Authority, which runs parts of the West Bank.
The group is, admittedly, unpopular among Palestinians and Israelis alike. But Arab nations have made clear that they will not play substitute for indigenous Palestinian rule. Though Palestinians’ support for Hamas has grown, the vast majority do not believe, or are not aware, that Hamas committed atrocities against Israeli civilians. When hostilities cease and Palestinians have the opportunity to take stock of what happened, a reckoning against a Hamas leadership that brought them to destruction might occur.
This is more likely if Palestinians have reason to believe in a brighter future. The United States will need Arab nations’ help, both in rebuilding Gaza and in giving legitimacy to a refreshed Palestinian Authority, including pressing for elections as soon as practicable.
All this will depend on movement in Israel. Gulf nations have indicated they will withhold reconstruction funds and financial support for any Gazan governing authority if Israel refuses to commit to a road map for a two-state solution.
Mr. Biden should continue pressing Israel to conduct its Gaza military operations with maximal respect for civilian life, which has resulted in changes to Israeli tactics. He should also treat this moment as an unlikely opportunity, with care and caution — and a little bit of hope, too.