Putin signals he’s open to cease-fire

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s confidence seems to know no bounds.

Buoyed by Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive and flagging Western support, Mr. Putin says that Russia’s war goals have not changed. Addressing his generals Tuesday, he boasted that Ukraine was so beleaguered that Russia’s invading troops were doing “what we want.”

“We won’t give up what’s ours,” he pledged, adding dismissively, “If they want to negotiate, let them negotiate.”

But in a recent push of backchannel diplomacy, Mr. Putin has been sending a different message: He is ready to make a deal.

Mr. Putin has been signaling through intermediaries since at least September that he is open to a cease-fire that freezes the fighting along the current lines, far short of his ambitions to dominate Ukraine, two former senior Russian officials close to the Kremlin and U.S. and international officials who have received the message from Mr. Putin’s envoys say.

In fact, Mr. Putin also sent out feelers for a cease-fire a year earlier, in the fall of 2022, according to U.S. officials. That quiet overture, not previously reported, came after Ukraine routed Russia’s army in the country’s northeast. Mr. Putin indicated he was satisfied with Russia’s captured territory and ready for an armistice, they said.

Mr. Putin’s repeated interest in a deal is an example of how opportunism and improvisation have defined his approach to the war behind closed doors. Interviews with Russians who have long known him and with international officials with insight into the Kremlin’s inner workings show a leader maneuvering to keep his options open in a war that has lasted longer than he expected.

“They say, ‘ We are ready to have negotiations on a cease-fire,’ ” said one international official who met with top Russian officials this fall. “They want to stay where they are on the battlefield.”

There is no evidence Ukraine’s leaders, who have pledged to retake all their territory, will accept such a deal. Some U.S. officials say it could be a Kremlin attempt at misdirection and does not reflect genuine willingness by Mr. Putin to compromise.

While obsessed with Russia’s battlefield performance and what he sees as his historic mission to retake “original Russian lands,” Mr. Putin has been keen for most Russians to go on with normal life. While readying Russia for years of war, he is quietly trying to make it clear that he is ready to end it.

“He really is willing to stop at the current positions,” one of the former senior Russian officials told The New York Times, relaying a message he said the Kremlin was quietly sending. The former official added, “He’s not willing to retreat 1 meter.”

Mr. Putin, the current and former officials said, sees a confluence of factors creating an opportune moment for a deal: a battlefield that seems stuck in a stalemate, the fallout over Ukraine’s disappointing offensive, its flagging support in the West, and, since October, the distraction of the Israel-Hamas war.