IN SEARCH OF SOME GOOD
Kyle Dubas had a winning hand at the trade deadline. Why does it feel as if he cashed out for a handful of beans?
Kyle Dubas was right at the center of the biggest hand in the NHL’s high-stakes poker game this week. When a bunch of Stanley Cup contenders anteed up, it seemed like the Penguins had a good shot to sweep a massive pot their way.
But when the time came Thursday for everyone to flip over their cards, some suitors had already folded and Dubas could stack up only a few smaller chips.
For the great Jake Guentzel, the Penguins got back a solid veteran winger in Michael Bunting, three B-level prospects and a 2024 draft pick that will only land inside the first round if Guentzel and the Hurricanes make the Stanley Cup Final.
Given that he wants to try to retool again around Sidney Crosby, Dubas had the right idea in prioritizing young players over draft picks that won’t line up with the Crosby timeline. But I don’t know if any of these assets will make a difference, at least not before Crosby finally exits his prime and this era comes to an end.
This is where fans and some of my pals on the beat who are defending this deal will throw out a caveat — that Dubas did well considering Guentzel is a rental.
But Dubas didn’t have to trade Guentzel. The 29-year-old was again producing at a point-per-game pace and wanted to remain with the Penguins. Maybe I’m off base on this, but I don’t believe he had unreasonable contract expectations.
So if a blockbuster return wasn’t there, just keep the guy and pivot to Plan B.
With that in mind, it is totally fair to be disappointed with the return the Penguins got for a homegrown All-Star and the best forward available at the deadline.
Dubas was unable — because I can’t imagine he would be unwilling — to pry one premium prospect away from the Hurricanes or the other contenders in pursuit. Those teams included the Rangers, Panthers, Oilers and Canucks. Instead, the Penguins accepted a package that was more about quantity than the quality.
I will not pretend to be an expert on NHL draft prospects. When I’m not attending Penguins games, I’m at home watching “Love is Blind,” not the Liiga. But if you pull up rankings from the dedicated folks who cover that for a living, you’ll have to scroll and scroll and scroll to locate the kids who are coming to Pittsburgh.
That does not mean one or more of them can’t hit. After all, that Guentzel guy was a third-rounder and not many people around the league thought much of him until he exploded onto the scene during the 2016-17 championship season.
Maybe Dubas and his amateur scouting staff, led by a bright guy in Nick Pryor, know something about these prospects that others do not. But none of the three seem to have strong odds to become front-line players in the next three years.
Ville Koivunen, 20, intrigues the most. He is said to be a skilled and cunning forward, a notion that’s backed up by his box-score statistics. For his age, Koivunen is having a highly productive season playing against grown men in the Liiga.
Vasily Ponomarev, 21, was a bit of a polarizing prospect in his draft year, but he climbed the stacked organizational depth chart in Carolina to skate in two NHL games this winter. He is a versatile, high-motor center but lacks star quality.
Cruz Lucius, 19, is a productive NCAA scorer but not a lock to make the NHL.
None went in the first round or are listed above 6-foot or 180 pounds. And the prospect analysts I trust didn’t peg any of them as strong skaters at this point.
All that said, they are still quite young and are unfinished products. And it would take only one hitting big to turn this trade into a win for Dubas. It seems like this Koivunen kid is the best bet.
He’s apparently made a massive leap this year.
The prospect pool is now deeper behind Brayden Yager, Owen Pickering and Joel Blomqvist. And if things break their way, the Penguins can make two picks in the first round in June. (There is also a decent chance they end up with zero.)
It definitely constitutes a step in the right direction for Dubas’ youth movement, but it was not the leap that was expected once he decided to trade Guentzel.
As for the 28-year-old Bunting, no complaints about him as the veteran coming back in the deal. He’s an imperfect player, no doubt. But he showed in Toronto that he can produce alongside stars and he’s a feisty forechecker, which makes him a fit in Pittsburgh. It doesn’t hurt that he can get under an opponent’s skin.
The Penguins also got later-round picks in future years in exchange for veteran depth players Chad Ruhwedel and Magnus Hellberg. That’s tidy business there. I won’t knock Dubas for hanging onto Reilly Smith or Lars Eller if the value wasn’t there because I honestly don’t know. He can try again this summer.
Those are secondary storylines anyway. The first trade deadline for Dubas was always going to be about Guentzel and the path that he put the Penguins on.
Thursday’s trade will have ripple effects for years to come. Today, it feels like a missed opportunity. But time will tell. We should always keep an open mind.