How Pitt can keep its March Madness hopes alive
For the first time in program history, Pitt men’s basketball gets the benefit of a double bye in the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament. Jeff Capel will get until a 2:30 p.m. tipoff Thursday at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C., to prepare his team against either Notre Dame, Georgia Tech or Wake Forest.
But even at 21-10 with a 12-8 ACC record, the Panthers aren’t considered by many national bracketologists to be on the inside of the bubble to make the NCAA tournament, let alone a lock to receive an at-large bid.
For Pitt to finish the job and make it to its second consecutive NCAA tournament, the Panthers must play like the team they’ve been for most of the second half of the season in what would make them the first ACC team in the past 21 seasons to start the year with a 15 conference record in make it into March Madness.
Here are the biggest keys to them doing that:
Sustain efficient offense
Pitt’s offensive efficiency has been at its best this season over the past five games. In four of those contests, the Panthers have shot 50 percent or better and registered 10 or more assists, with each of those four games resulting in wins.
Early in the season, the Panthers relied heavily on deep shooting to get their offense going. While that was fine against mid-majors teams early in the season with Blake Hinson, that type of offense got the Panthers in plenty of trouble when they faced early Power Five conference teams like Florida and Missouri.
But when the Panthers figured out their rhythm, they became one of the more efficient offenses in the country. As an example, the Panthers rank 34th nationally in KenPom.com’s adjusted offensive efficiency ratings.
After the Panthers’ regular season finale win over N.C. State on Saturday, Capel, senior forward Blake Hinson and freshman guard Bub Carrington each acknowledged the improvements Pitt has made on offense to become a better offensive team that can score in various ways.
The bottom line for Pitt’s offense is that once Carrington, freshman guard Jaland Lowe and Ishmael Leggett figured out the pace of how to run the offense from the backcourt, the Panthers have been a dominant team. Their ability to keep energy in the basketball with solid ball movement to create assists has changed who the Panthers are in the second half of the season.
That’s what’s made Pitt a dangerous team when it’s been at its best. Out of Pitt’s 31 contests, the Panthers have recorded at least 15 or more assists 13 times. During those games, the Panthers have shot 51.4 percent, well above their season rate of 43.7 percent. Pitt is 11-2 in such games, with the two losses coming in contests they shot less than 40 percent from the field.
And when Pitt shoots more than 40 percent, it’s capitalized on strong shooting with a 20-2 record on the season. And in those two losses, the Panthers recorded less than 15 assists.
If Pitt maintains its offensive rhythm in the ACC tournament, it will be a formidable foe for whoever it faces.
Stay aware of screen rotation
Pitt’s defense has been a reliable asset this season, even when the offense hasn’t been at its best. The Panthers’ 67.5 points allowed is fourth best in the ACC, and their perimeter defense has held opponents to just 31 percent on 3-pointers, which is second-best in the conference. Maybe the biggest factor that’s helped with Pitt’s defense is the team’s collective awareness to counter ball screens and overall play structures of opponents. For most of the season, the Panthers have shown the ability to identify on-and-off ball screens intended to create open looks for opponents and cut them off.
Sometimes that’s been a result of the Panthers’ guards fighting through the screen. Other times that’s been a result of help from teammates coming at the right time, as well as the defensive switches covering up open shooters to prevent easy assists for opponents.
Some of the best examples of that defense came in two of Pitt’s biggest road wins this season against Duke and Virginia. After Pitt’s 74-63 win against the Cavaliers, Leggett talked about how the Panthers “can’t blink” in those situations, and that’s been a mantra that has proven valuable to Pitt’s defense this season.
If Pitt manages to pull off that part of its defense, it will force offenses to win more one-on-one situations and shoot extremely well without open looks.
Bigs neutralize the paint
It’s no secret that Pitt’s biggest weakness comes in its frontcourt, with junior center Federiko Federiko and sophomore forward Guillermo Diaz Graham being the primary options to take on the other team’s primary big man. Redshirt junior Will Jeffress has stepped in to help some games, and Hinson has also occasionally taken on the role.
However, the bottom line for Pitt is that it must mitigate other teams from feeding off the strength of their primary forward or center. Entirely stopping those teams isn’t as much an option, but limiting how the success of a team’s best inside paint presence can feed the rest of the team is a big key.
Primary examples of Pitt successfully doing this include a home win over Wake Forest, where Jeffress limited center Efton Reid to zero points in the final minutes, even though he had scored 14 points early in the game. Other examples include how Pitt tired out N.C. State’s forward DJ Burns and how the team frustrated Duke’s Kyle Filipowski, the reigning ACC Player of the Year.
The success of this factor will likely determine Pitt’s ability to keep up the flow on defense and be aware of on and off-ball screens from opponents. In games where Pitt has been able to trust Federiko, Diaz Graham and/or Jeffress to limit an opponent’s big man without consistent help defense, the Panthers’ defense has kept opponents out of their rhythm enough to let its strong offense take control of games.