Possible matchup vs. Wake is critical
Potential bid stealer: Syracuse, Virginia Tech (18-13, 56)
The scoop: The general consensus seems to be that five ACC teams will make this year’s NCAA tournament. Three of those bids are already secured by North Carolina, Duke and Clemson, while Virginia will snag the fourth if it can avoid an upset Thursday evening against either Clemson, Boston College or Miami.
The likely showdown of Pitt and Wake Forest serves as a huge matchup, as it will eliminate another team from the running. The winner, however, could have remaining work to be done, depending on what takes place in other league tournaments.
Syracuse and Virginia Tech serve as wild cards this week, as both have been highlighted by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi as teams that still have a slight chance if multiple things go their way. Neither was picked at the start of the week to receive an at-large bid.
Big East
Likely in: Seton Hall (20-11, 62), St. John’s (19-12, 39)
On the fence: Villanova (17-14, 32)
Potential bid stealer: Providence (19-12, 63)
The scoop: Seton Hall and St. John’s seem to be in a position similar to where Pitt was last year at this time, as the worst-case scenario for both looks to be a trip to the First Four in Dayton, Ohio. Villanova is the primary team for Panthers fans to keep an eye on in the Big East. The Wildcats open their league tournament at 9 p.m. Wednesday with a favorable matchup against DePaul.
Assuming it takes care of business in that game, its next matchup will be against Marquette, which will essentially determine the fate of numerous bubble teams. While the Wildcats lost to the Golden Eagles in both regular-season matchups, their chances could be better in Round 3 if All-American guard Tyler Kolek remains sidelined with an oblique injury.
If Villanova can win two games in Madison Square Garden, with one of those two wins coming against a top-10 opponent, it could be enough for it to earn a spot in Dayton. Providence, meanwhile, would likely have to win at least three games in the Big East tournament for it to have a serious chance of earning an at-large bid.
Big Ten
Likely in: Michigan State (18-13, 24), Nebraska (22-9, 37), Northwestern (21-10, 50)
On the fence: Iowa (18-13, 60)
Potential bid stealer: Ohio State (19-12, 55)
The scoop: As things currently stand, Pitt fans have little to worry about when it comes to the Big Ten tournament. Viewed as locks for Selection Sunday, Michigan State, Nebraska and Northwestern entered the week looking only to improve their seeding for the NCAA tournament.
Similar to Pitt’s potential matchup against Wake Forest, the loser between Iowa and Ohio State, a contest scheduled for 6:30 p.m. Thursday, will be eliminated from contention. But the Hawkeyes and Buckeyes have more work to do than earning a single victory.
Iowa could build a better argument for itself with wins against Ohio State and Illinois but wouldn’t be completely safe without three wins this week. Ohio State, meanwhile, would likely have to reach the Big Ten final for it to pass the many teams ahead of it on the bubble’s current hierarchy.
Big 12 Likely in: TCU (20-11, 40) On the fence: None Potential bid stealer:
Kansas State (18-13, 70)
The scoop: Thanks to a handful of powerhouses, along with perhaps some wellplanned nonconference scheduling, the Big 12 tournament will likely have little to no impact on this year’s NCAA tournament bubble.
TCU could potentially impact the status of teams lower on the list should it suffer an embarrassing loss to Oklahoma on Wednesday afternoon. A blowout defeat to the Sooners won’t be able to knock the Horned Frogs completely out of the dance but could drop them to a lower seed, thus creating a ripple effect for other teams on the bubble.
Kansas State entered the week far from the NCAA tournament but boasts a potential path to play its way into the conversation. The Wildcats open Thursday with a battle against Texas and would have Quad 1 opportunities for the remainder of their run.
SEC
Likely Mississippi State (19-12, 42)
On the fence: Texas A&M (18-13, 46)
Potentialbid stealer: LSU (17-14, 92)
The scoop: Mississippi State can secure a definite spot in the field of 68 with a victory against LSU on Thursday afternoon. Should the Bulldogs lose, they will likely land in Dayton but could miss the big dance if numerous other bubble teams deliver good showings this week.
Texas A&M is another team for Pitt fans to monitor, as it finds itself in a near identical position to the Panthers. The Aggies open the SEC tournament with a favorable matchup against Ole Miss. Should they win, a battle in the quarterfinals against Kentucky awaits.
Despite a lesser win total and lower spot in the NET rankings, Texas A&M opened the week with more bracketologists believing it will receivean at-large bid compared to Pitt. Should both teams win twice this week, the Panthers would likely flip that narrative, as their two victories would be a more impressive pairing. Nonetheless, a Texas A&M loss would help Pitt tremendously.
Pac-12
Likely in: Colorado (22-9,
On the fence: Utah (18-13,
Potential bid stealer:
Oregon (20-11, 68)
The scoop: Of all the league tournaments to watch, the Pac-12 tournament has the potential to create the most chaos. Arizona and Washington State are the conference’s two locks for the big dance, while the rest of the group entered the week with plenty to play for.
Colorado started the week viewed by most experts as a team likely to snag one of the final four at-large bids. The Buffaloes will play their first game Thursday against either Utah or Arizona State, and a win over either would likely punch their ticket.
The team to watch in this tournament is Utah. If the Utes can upset Colorado and follow that with a victory over Washington State in the semifinals, they will jump numerous teams on the bubble, which could possibly include the Buffaloes.
Oregon, meanwhile, likely can’t earn an at-large bid but boasts a very simple path to the league’s championship game. If the Ducks can avoid an upset Thursday and then play spoiler against Arizona, a team that lost to USC over the weekend, it finds itself in prime position to win the Pac12 and create a bubblewide panic for other at-large bid seekers.
Mid-majors
Likely in: Indiana State (27-6, 29), Richmond (23-8, 71)
On the fence: Memphis (22-9, 69), New Mexico (21-9, 28)
Potential bid stealer: South Florida (23-6, 78), UNLV (17-11, 75)
The scoop: Drake provided the first shakeup to the bubble this past weekend by defeating Indiana State in the Missouri Valley championship game. Despite their status as a mid-major, the Sycamores have been highly regarded throughout the year and will likely receive an atlarge bid unless more upsets occur this week.
Richmond is a team that will likely receive an at-large bid if Dayton wins the Atlantic 10. However, should a team aside from the Spiders or Flyers win the league, Richmond could be out of luck.
New Mexico has the thirdhighest odds of this group to receive an at-large bid, but unlike Indiana State and Richmond, it cannot go winless this week. The Lobos open the Mountain West tournament with a favorable matchup against Air Force. Should they win, a showdown against Boise State in the quarterfinals provides them with an opportunity to be part of the NCAA tournament field.
Memphis and South Florida both entered the week with work to do in the American Athletic Conference tournament. Despite being a regular in the AP top 25 earlier this season, the Tigers have fallen dramatically in the past months due to ugly losses at both home and on the road. South Florida, meanwhile, boasts the league’s top seed.
Both teams would likely have to reach their league’s championship contest at minimum to create enough noise for an at-large bid. A potential matchup between the two in the semifinals will also trim the bubble Saturday evening.
Finally, albeit a long shot, some bracketologists have yet to count out UNLV. A No. 4 seed in the Mountain West tournament, the Runnin’ Rebels’ path to the league’s title game would provide numerous resume-boosting wins, starting with a matchup against San Diego State on Thursday afternoon.