Pinch of despair
In woeful NL Central, Pirates could have been a contender
The NL Central stinks. What a shame the Pirates aren’t seizing the opportunity. They had every chance to radically upgrade their rotation but decided against it, and I’m beginning to suspect it had something to do with money.
Can you believe that? The Pirates?
Bob Nutting?
Hey Bob, nobody expects a Dodgers-like payroll, but is Brewers-like too much to ask? You’re telling me you couldn’t have aggressively chased one of the prime freeagent pitchers out there?
This town is dying for a winner, which is to say, dying to spend their money at PNC Park, and you’re giving them Bailey Falter as part of your season-opening rotation.
Bailey Falter is here. Paul Skenes isn’t. And we’re supposed to believe winning is the thing.
One of your competitors, the St. Louis Cardinals, ponied up $75 million over three years for last season’s AL Cy Young runner-up, Sonny Gray. That’s one reason some people are picking the Cardinals to win the division. Everybody’s picking the Fighting Falters to finish last. Gray’s making $25 million a year, which would still leave your payroll among the bottom 10, rather than a pathetic second-last, which is where it stands after an offseason that featured so many dumpster dives that the Pirates could wear trash bags to their opener Thursday in Miami.
And how long will phenom Skenes be toiling in Indianapolis? Are the Pirates determined to try to save a year of control, even though by the time that becomes an issue (several years), he’ll probably be traded?
My thinking falls in line with the analytical site FanGraphs, which sees the Comedy Central playing out this way:
Cardinals 83-79
Cubs 81-81 Brewers 80-82
Reds 79-83
Pirates 75-87
One team over .500, the rest hovering around that mark for much of the season. That sounds about right.
I’ll pick the Cubs to win it, but you get the point: It’s going to be tight; it’s going to be mediocre; every game matters; and the Pirates are going into the season with at least three big question marks in their rotation, although I am heartened to see that 22-yearold fireballer Jared Jones made the team — not that they had much choice after his stellar spring.
Marco Gonzales had a 5.22 ERA in Seattle last year and gave up approximately 1,000 home runs in spring training. Martin Perez is slightly more encouraging — he was good two years ago — but was relegated to the bullpen for the second half of last season in Texas.
Who else?
Luis Ortiz still doesn’t look like the guy who turned heads in September two years ago. Falter isn’t qualified. Domingo German has more baggage than a fleet of UPS carriers, as revealed at NJ.com the other day, and the Pirates might regret taking a chance on him.
The club seems to have no issue signing players with histories of alleged domestic violence incidents (German, Aroldis Chapman, Ji Hwan Bae) but apparently has drawn a line with Trevor Bauer, who could be had for practically nothing, which you’d think would be enticing to Budgetary Bob.
Skenes can’t get here soon enough — and make no mistake, he will provide a serious jolt of entertainment. He is nothing less than the most anticipated pitching prospect in franchise history, considered a better prospect than even Gerrit Cole.
And that’s the good news: The Pirates aren’t boring anymore. Oneil Cruz is a unicorn at shortstop. If he can figure out how to hit and/or lay off breaking balls, stardom awaits. Ke’Bryan Hayes could be a special player if he can recapture the hitting prowess he showed late last season. He might already be the best defensive player in baseball.
I like the addition of Michael A. Taylor in center field because I like superior defense. Jack Suwinski feels like an X-factor. He needs to reduce the bust part of boom or bust. You know what you’re getting from Bryan Reynolds, which is a good thing. Henry Davis needs to become a middle-of-the-order thumper and provide at least average defense at catcher. I’m still baffled by the Pirates putting the former No. 1 overall pick in right field when he could have been apprenticing, but whatever.
Rowdy Tellez is the firstbase version of Gonzales, but he also could be entertaining. The David Bednar-led bullpen has a chance to be lightsout, but how often will they be protecting leads?
You can feel things changing for the better around here. Younger pitching talent will join Skenes, Mitch Keller and Jones in the next few years. But it’s not here yet. The Pirates are holding themselves back in a year where they could contend. They’ll improve slightly on last year’s 76 wins, just not enough.
It all adds up to 79-83, and maybe there’s some significance in that number: ’79 was the last time this team won a playoff series.
No rush, Bob.