Twelve months to go
With a mayoral election in view, three themes for the next year of Pittsburgh politics
With this year’s primary elections — which determine the final winner in the vast majority of local races — now behind us, Pittsburgh voters’ attention will begin to turn to next year’s mayoral election. While the showdown between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will preoccupy many through Nov. 5 and beyond, this race will determine much more about everyday life in Western Pennsylvania.
With that in mind, there are three themes that should dominate policy and politics in Pittsburgh over the next 12 months: growth, public safety and governance. These are the issues on which Mayor Ed Gainey will have to produce compelling results — or defend himself against criticisms. And these are the issues on which potential challengers will have to formulate their own proposals to offer a compellingnew vision for a city that has struggled to return to form under Mr. Gainey’sleadership.
Growth
On Wednesday, April 24, Carnegie Mellon University and the University of Pittsburgh co-sponsored an event with the Brookings Institution on the importance of federal policy for Pittsburgh’s economic future. While the tone of the event was largely hopeful, the data made it clear that southwest Pennsylvania’s resurgence from the post-industrial doldrums has been abortive.
Most strikingly, the Pittsburgh region ranked nearly dead last in the country in job growth from 2012 to 2022, with a loss of 4.1%. At the same time, while population loss in the city andthe wider region appeared to have bottomed out in the late 2010s, population has since remained stagnant or, in the case of Allegheny County as a whole,begun declining once again.
This lack of demographic growth explains how Pittsburgh can simultaneously have a historically low unemployment rate and anemic jobs numbers.
Pitt economist Chris Briem has pointedout,rightly, that the city’s economic stagnancy is tied to its unique demography: This is the oldest urban area in America. But that shouldn’t cause regional leaders to throw up their hands. Rather, it should encourage them to seek ways to bring new people to Pittsburgh and, above all, to make the city a hospitable place to raise families.
That means having a coherent housing policy that emphasizes building a wide variety of homes and apartments at a wide variety of price points. It means attracting immigrants and making them feel welcome. It means investing the city’s limited resources in high-impact quality-of-life enhancements, like parks and recreation centers. And it means competing aggressively for newbusinesses to locate in the city.
In other words, Pittsburgh needs an explicit strategy for growth. Mr. Gainey has never articulated one, and voters should demand one from anyonewho seeks his office.
Public safety
Crime is down in Pittsburgh since a 2022 spike, though public perceptions have yet to catch up. The next several months will determine
whether perceptions return to the reality of relative security — or if public safety declines to match currently grimperceptions.
Official statistics also do not capture crimes that are not reported, which increase as fewer officers are availableto respond to incidents.
Regardless, the city’s collapsing police staffing levels are acrisis that will require sustained policy response. The Gainey administration “temporarily” reduced budgeted staffing from 900 to 850 officers, but both goals are fanciful. If the city has 700 cops at theend of the year, it will be lucky.
While the relationship between police staffing and violent crime is complicated,there comes a point when the lack of police translates to criminal impunity, and it is very difficult to restore order once the tipping point has beenpassed.
That will mean recruiting more sworn officers, with which the city has had only limited success over the last two years. It also means supplementing officers with trained social work and mental health professionals, who can handle situations not suited to a law enforcement-only response. The Gainey administration has taken halting steps in this direction,largely following work begun under its predecessor, but these moves have been ad hoc and have not amountedto a coherent strategy.
Mr. Gainey and his city have thus far been fortunate that crime has remained at tolerable levels. But there must be fuller conversations — including alternative views from prospective mayoral candidates — about howto keep it that way.
Governance
While Pittsburghers’ expectations of city government are never very high, right now trust in City Hall has diminished even lower than usual. Ethical concerns about the procurement of professional services, such as the botched Matrix police staffing study and “community engagement” services for the coming comprehensive plan, have come under particular scrutiny.
But most of all, Pittsburgh’s leaders — both current and aspiring — must reckon with a 2024 budget that places the city on a trajectory to Act 47 state oversight.
Mr. Gainey must explain how he will plugs tens of millions of dollars in holes in revenue projections, and how thecity will function at some of the proposed spending levels in coming years — such as only $6 million for street resurfacing in 2025 and 2026, less than half of the already insufficient funding setaside in a typical year.
And anyone who aspires to his office must present a realistic fiscal plan of their own, one that returns the city to the path of long-term, sustainable solvency. Serious policy discussions about the trade-offs in municipal budgeting — as opposed to continual happy-talk about how everything is fine — will be necessary to finding real solutions.
Altogether, the next 12 months will be a test of Pittsburgh’s civic health. Robust public discourse on the themes of growth, public safety and governance will ensure the responsible leadership the city desperately needs. Political apathy, however, will ensure Pittsburgh enters yet another era of decline.