North Texas over Troy by 3
Bowl Mania kicks off in New Orleans but unlike the betting public who has already pushed the Trojans up to a touchdown favorite, we don’t think this visit to the Big Easy will be a walk in the park for the cochampions from the Sun Belt. Sure, the Troy boys have notched 10 wins for the second straight campaign, including 3-0 SUATS versus winning opposition this season, and are 6-1 SU in their last seven meetings with the Mean Green while North Texas got run over by FAU and the Lane Train in the Conference USA title tilt. However, we can’t get past the fact that in their season-ending 8-point win over Arkansas State to claim a share of their conference crown, Troy was outgained by 313 yards. Our database is also a bit leery of Neal Brown’s bunch as it notes the Trojans are just 2-7 ATS as favorites versus CUSA foes and 1-3 ATS as bowl chalk. Meanwhile, UNT is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS versus the Belt when they sport a winning record and 2-0 ATS in this particular matchup when they arrive with rest. In addition, our soon-to-be-released
(available Thursday) reminds us that C-USA bowlers off a double-digit loss are 13-2 ATS. That’s plenty of good numbers in the Green’s favor but the final tragedy for Troy comes courtesy of THE CLINCHER: Bowl favorites of 4 or more points on a 3-0 SUATS win streak are 3-9 SU and 1-11 ATS when facing a foe off a SUATS loss.