North Texas over Troy by 3

Playbook Football (Midweek Alert) - - 2-minute Handicap -

Bowl Ma­nia kicks off in New Or­leans but un­like the bet­ting pub­lic who has al­ready pushed the Tro­jans up to a touch­down fa­vorite, we don’t think this visit to the Big Easy will be a walk in the park for the cocham­pi­ons from the Sun Belt. Sure, the Troy boys have notched 10 wins for the sec­ond straight cam­paign, in­clud­ing 3-0 SUATS ver­sus win­ning op­po­si­tion this sea­son, and are 6-1 SU in their last seven meet­ings with the Mean Green while North Texas got run over by FAU and the Lane Train in the Con­fer­ence USA ti­tle tilt. How­ever, we can’t get past the fact that in their sea­son-end­ing 8-point win over Arkansas State to claim a share of their con­fer­ence crown, Troy was out­gained by 313 yards. Our data­base is also a bit leery of Neal Brown’s bunch as it notes the Tro­jans are just 2-7 ATS as fa­vorites ver­sus CUSA foes and 1-3 ATS as bowl chalk. Mean­while, UNT is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS ver­sus the Belt when they sport a win­ning record and 2-0 ATS in this par­tic­u­lar matchup when they ar­rive with rest. In ad­di­tion, our soon-to-be-re­leased

(avail­able Thurs­day) re­minds us that C-USA bowlers off a dou­ble-digit loss are 13-2 ATS. That’s plenty of good num­bers in the Green’s fa­vor but the fi­nal tragedy for Troy comes courtesy of THE CLINCHER: Bowl fa­vorites of 4 or more points on a 3-0 SUATS win streak are 3-9 SU and 1-11 ATS when fac­ing a foe off a SUATS loss.

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