Kansas State over Ucla by 3
The line tells us this should be one of the more intriguing bowl matchups but to be honest, we’d rather be sitting on a cactus in Phoenix then get involved in this rematch of the 2015 Alamo Bowl (2014 season). If you ‘remember’, it was a shootout won by Brett Hundley, Paul Perkins and the Bruins, 40-35. So the knee-jerk reaction would be to go to battle with Grandpa Snyder and the ‘Cats tonight at Chase Field were it not for the fact that star QB Jesse Ertz was lost for the season after suffering a knee injury in early October against Texas. Not so coincidentally, they enter this fray on an ugly 0-9 ITS slide and are No. 118 in the land in First Down Offense. KSU does own a big advantage on the ground as they are +1.1 in net Yards Per Rush as opposed to UCLA’s -1.8 but we’re not thrilled with their 5-8 SU and 3-10 ATS log in their last 13 bowl games or the Big 12’s 2-12 ATS mark as bowl favorites of less than 7 points. However, we’re also having a hard time making a case for highly-touted QB Josh Rosen and the Bruins. Not surprisingly they own the No. 5 passing attack in the land but they also arrive with the nation’s 122nd rated defense while ranking No. 115 in Turnover Margin. And with former head coach Jim Mora out of the picture, this little ditty comes into play: bowlers with interim coaches are 1-9 ATS against foes off a SU win and ATS loss. Now can you see why rolling around in cacti and not getting involved in this mess doesn’t seem like such a bad idea? Pass.