BEST BET Fresno State over Houston by 8
The best kept money-making secret in college football this season resides in Fresno where the Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS as dogs under HC Jeff Tedford, including 4-0 SUATS when taking 7 or fewer points. It’s the reason he resides inside this week’s TRIVIA TEASER as outlined on page 3. The veteran Tedford (coached Cal from 2002-2012) is also 5-3 SU in bowl games, including 4-1 SU when his team allows less than 24 PPG on the season. And while his hire has paid instant dividends (already an 8-win improvement over last year), the same cannot be said in Houston as the loss of Tom Herman to Texas was felt on both sides of the ball with the Cougars dropping 8 PPG on offense and slipping nearly 100 YPG on defense. And unlike the last two seasons when the Cougs were 14-2 SU and 11-4 ATS off a double-digit win, they are 0-3 SUATS in that role under 1st-year head coach Major Applewhite. And it doesn’t figure to get any better tonight in Honolulu as those doing the ‘lei’ing (i.e. favorite) are 2-8 ATS in this bowl since 2007. And since we’ve let the Fresno hedge fund out of the bag, we may as well unleash THE CLINCHER: Bowlers who lost their conference championship game by 7 or fewer points are 22-3-1 ATS as either dogs or favorites of less than 10 points when facing a foe that is not off a win of more than 18 points.