BEST BET Texas over Missouri by 10
Ever wonder why some teams come into a bowl game hitting on all cylinders, then look like they’ve never seen a football once the contest kicks off? It’s called No More Mo, because there is no bigger momentum breaker at this stage of the season than a month off between games. That’s what Texas HC Tom Herman will be hoping for today as Missouri finished the regular season as one of the hottest teams in the land, going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS while routing three of four SEC opponents. Yes, just as Mizzou fans were questioning whether 2nd year head coach Barry Odom was a good hire, QB Drew Lock proceeded to rain bombs on every secondary he faced, throwing for 5 TDs in a season-ending win over Arkansas to finish with whopping 43 TD passes versus only 12 picks. Today, however, defense figures to rule… and we’re not talking about the Tigers. Texas HC Tom Herman stands 9-1 ATS as a dog, including 6-0 ATS against foes off a win, and he figures to use that month we mentioned to work up schemes to maximize pressure on Missouri QB Lock. If that happens, the Longhorns own enough offensive punch to exploit a Mizzou D that got ripped for 446 yards and 45 points by Arkansas on the day after Thanksgiving. A check of the stat sheet also favors Bevo: Texas is tied for No.1 in Defensive TDs (6) and ranked No.1 Net Punting (44.66) while the Tigers from CoMo are No. 128 in Time of Possession and No. 122 in Red Zone Defense. More support for the ‘Horns comes from series history as Missouri is just 2-7 SU versus Texas since 1996 – and the now-favored Tigers were underdogs in all 9 games. In a showdown between two squads playing their first bowl game in three years, our powerful database provides THE CLINCHER: Bowl dogs off a SU favorite loss in which they did not lose to the spread by 20 or more points are 24-4-1 ATS if they allow 22 or fewer PPG and are facing a foe off consecutive wins.