BEST BET Texas over Mis­souri by 10

Playbook Football (Midweek Alert) - - 2-minute Handicap -

Ever won­der why some teams come into a bowl game hit­ting on all cylin­ders, then look like they’ve never seen a foot­ball once the con­test kicks off? It’s called No More Mo, be­cause there is no big­ger mo­men­tum breaker at this stage of the sea­son than a month off be­tween games. That’s what Texas HC Tom Her­man will be hop­ing for today as Mis­souri fin­ished the reg­u­lar sea­son as one of the hottest teams in the land, go­ing 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS while rout­ing three of four SEC op­po­nents. Yes, just as Miz­zou fans were ques­tion­ing whether 2nd year head coach Barry Odom was a good hire, QB Drew Lock pro­ceeded to rain bombs on ev­ery se­condary he faced, throw­ing for 5 TDs in a sea­son-end­ing win over Arkansas to fin­ish with whop­ping 43 TD passes ver­sus only 12 picks. Today, how­ever, de­fense fig­ures to rule… and we’re not talk­ing about the Tigers. Texas HC Tom Her­man stands 9-1 ATS as a dog, in­clud­ing 6-0 ATS against foes off a win, and he fig­ures to use that month we men­tioned to work up schemes to max­i­mize pres­sure on Mis­souri QB Lock. If that hap­pens, the Longhorns own enough of­fen­sive punch to ex­ploit a Miz­zou D that got ripped for 446 yards and 45 points by Arkansas on the day af­ter Thanks­giv­ing. A check of the stat sheet also fa­vors Bevo: Texas is tied for No.1 in De­fen­sive TDs (6) and ranked No.1 Net Punt­ing (44.66) while the Tigers from CoMo are No. 128 in Time of Posses­sion and No. 122 in Red Zone De­fense. More sup­port for the ‘Horns comes from series his­tory as Mis­souri is just 2-7 SU ver­sus Texas since 1996 – and the now-fa­vored Tigers were un­der­dogs in all 9 games. In a show­down be­tween two squads play­ing their first bowl game in three years, our pow­er­ful data­base pro­vides THE CLINCHER: Bowl dogs off a SU fa­vorite loss in which they did not lose to the spread by 20 or more points are 24-4-1 ATS if they al­low 22 or fewer PPG and are fac­ing a foe off con­sec­u­tive wins.

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