BEST BET Florida State over Southern Miss by 3
We know that the NCAA doesn’t recognize that FSU will break the 35-game consecutive bowl record they share with Nebraska (the Cornhuskers did it from 1969-2003) because of the academic cheating scandal that vacated most of the Seminoles’ wins during the 2006 and 2007 seasons. But frankly, Florida State will! Unfortunately, this contest takes place well in advance of New Year’s in Shreveport, Louisiana – something that Seminole supporters didn’t plan on when making pre-season bowl arrangements. And it will be without HC Jimbo Fisher, who bolted Tallahassee for Texas A&M. It will also be without our support as bowlers with interim coaches are just 6-18 ATS after scoring 32 or more points. Worse, the ‘Noles are 0-7 ATS against .500 or greater opposition this season. In addition, our reliable machine (which has been spitting out data for 37 consecutive seasons) reminds us that bowl favorites of 16 or more points are 2-8 ATS since 1996 and that ACC bowl chalk of 3 or more points off back-to-back SU wins are 1-7 ATS. Combine that with FSU’s 0-3 ATS all-time log following a win against CUSA foes and Southern’s 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS mark as bowlers off a win versus a foe off a win of more than 20 points and you can probably even vacate THE CLINCHER: Pre-New Year’s Day bowl dogs of 3 or more points with a higher win percentage off a win of 10 or fewer points are 33-10-1 ATS since 1980.