BEST BET Florida State over South­ern Miss by 3

Playbook Football (Midweek Alert) - - 2-minute Handicap -

We know that the NCAA doesn’t rec­og­nize that FSU will break the 35-game con­sec­u­tive bowl record they share with Ne­braska (the Corn­huskers did it from 1969-2003) be­cause of the aca­demic cheat­ing scan­dal that va­cated most of the Semi­noles’ wins dur­ing the 2006 and 2007 sea­sons. But frankly, Florida State will! Un­for­tu­nately, this con­test takes place well in ad­vance of New Year’s in Shreve­port, Louisiana – some­thing that Semi­nole sup­port­ers didn’t plan on when making pre-sea­son bowl ar­range­ments. And it will be with­out HC Jimbo Fisher, who bolted Tal­la­has­see for Texas A&M. It will also be with­out our sup­port as bowlers with in­terim coaches are just 6-18 ATS af­ter scor­ing 32 or more points. Worse, the ‘Noles are 0-7 ATS against .500 or greater op­po­si­tion this sea­son. In ad­di­tion, our re­li­able ma­chine (which has been spit­ting out data for 37 con­sec­u­tive sea­sons) re­minds us that bowl fa­vorites of 16 or more points are 2-8 ATS since 1996 and that ACC bowl chalk of 3 or more points off back-to-back SU wins are 1-7 ATS. Com­bine that with FSU’s 0-3 ATS all-time log fol­low­ing a win against CUSA foes and South­ern’s 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS mark as bowlers off a win ver­sus a foe off a win of more than 20 points and you can prob­a­bly even va­cate THE CLINCHER: Pre-New Year’s Day bowl dogs of 3 or more points with a higher win per­cent­age off a win of 10 or fewer points are 33-10-1 ATS since 1980.

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