NEW ENGLAND over Buffalo by 6
Yes, the Pats dipped into their famous bag of tricks and rallied late to deny us a comfortable 10* GOY win with the Steelers last week. The sting still hurts, even for clients that were savvy enough to take a field goal in the contest. As a result of the most inane rule in the NFL rulebook (the receiver did not “survive the ground”… WTF?), New England now holds the pole position on home field in the upcoming NFL playoffs. Buffalo’s task this week will be to survive Foxborough where New England is 131-31 SU and 91-65-6 ATS all-time under Bill Belichick. But the fact of the matter is the Pats are only 6-11 ATS as double-digit home chalk against division foes in these same games. Furthermore, QB Tom Brady is a measly 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS as a home favorite when coming off Pittsburgh, with no wins by more than 10 points. Yes, Buffalo is 1-10 ATS against foes off a win of 3 pointsexact, but by the same token, New England is 0-4 ATS when coming off a win of 3 points-exact themselves. The bottom line is returning home after spending 5 of the last 6 weeks away, off a stunning late comeback win at Pittsburgh, leaves the Pats highly vulnerable today.