NEW ENG­LAND over Buf­falo by 6

Playbook Football (Midweek Alert) - - 2-minute Handicap -

Yes, the Pats dipped into their fa­mous bag of tricks and ral­lied late to deny us a com­fort­able 10* GOY win with the Steel­ers last week. The sting still hurts, even for clients that were savvy enough to take a field goal in the con­test. As a re­sult of the most inane rule in the NFL rule­book (the re­ceiver did not “sur­vive the ground”… WTF?), New Eng­land now holds the pole po­si­tion on home field in the up­com­ing NFL play­offs. Buf­falo’s task this week will be to sur­vive Foxbor­ough where New Eng­land is 131-31 SU and 91-65-6 ATS all-time un­der Bill Belichick. But the fact of the mat­ter is the Pats are only 6-11 ATS as dou­ble-digit home chalk against di­vi­sion foes in th­ese same games. Fur­ther­more, QB Tom Brady is a measly 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS as a home fa­vorite when com­ing off Pitts­burgh, with no wins by more than 10 points. Yes, Buf­falo is 1-10 ATS against foes off a win of 3 point­sex­act, but by the same to­ken, New Eng­land is 0-4 ATS when com­ing off a win of 3 points-ex­act them­selves. The bot­tom line is re­turn­ing home af­ter spend­ing 5 of the last 6 weeks away, off a stun­ning late comeback win at Pitts­burgh, leaves the Pats highly vul­ner­a­ble today.

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