PURDUE over E Michigan by 11
Sometimes expectations get the best of us. We’re big fans of secondyear Purdue skipper Jeff Brohm, who turned a downtrodden program into a 7-6 bowl-winning team in just one year, and we really want his success to continue with the Boilermakers. We liked Purdue to win and cover in its opener against Northwestern last week but the Boilers fell into 14-0 first quarter hole and ended up on the short end of a 31-27 decision – thanks a to 4-1 turnover deficit. And as much as we want to get back on Brohm’s boys here, the fact is that Purdue, like its Big Ten brethren, Michigan, is a fade today. Who are we to argue, especially when the Boilermakers sport a wobbly 6-12 ATS mark at home in MAC meetings since 2002. Of course, we’re not going to mortgage the house on Eastern Michigan, not with the Eagles now just 1-24 SU in their last 25 Big Ten showdowns. As bad as that looks, though, head coach Chris Creighton has the EMU program headed in the right directions with 13 wins the last two-plus seasons. In addition, seven starters return on defense for an Eagles team that allowed the fewest number of points in school history last season. Despite their wide-open reputation on offense under Brohm, the Boilers averaged 25 PPG in 2017 and might be carrying too big a price for such a pedestrian output today. So we’ll shelve our expectations this week with a slight lean to the visitors.concern for Sparty with tonight’s matchup is two-fold. One, playing weekday games during the regular season has not been to MSU’s liking of late (0-4 ATS). And two, head coach Mark Dantonio is 0-4 ATS in season openers versus foes than won 7 or more games the previous season. Let’s not forget the price of admission, either: Michigan State is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 tries as chalk of 20 or more points. Since taking over the Utah State program in 2013, Matt Wells has led the Aggies to bowl games in four of five seasons while knocking off three Top 25 ranked foes under his lead. However, he’s also watched his team get blasted in their road opener the past two years, 45-7 at USC and 59-10 at Wisconsin. It all boils down to this – we plan to buy several tickets on these two in 2018 but we’ll skip tonight and go to a few Saturday matinees this fall instead.