PUR­DUE over E Michi­gan by 11

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Some­times ex­pec­ta­tions get the best of us. We’re big fans of sec­ondyear Pur­due skip­per Jeff Brohm, who turned a down­trod­den pro­gram into a 7-6 bowl-win­ning team in just one year, and we re­ally want his suc­cess to con­tinue with the Boil­er­mak­ers. We liked Pur­due to win and cover in its opener against North­west­ern last week but the Boil­ers fell into 14-0 first quar­ter hole and ended up on the short end of a 31-27 de­ci­sion – thanks a to 4-1 turnover deficit. And as much as we want to get back on Brohm’s boys here, the fact is that Pur­due, like its Big Ten brethren, Michi­gan, is a fade to­day. Who are we to ar­gue, es­pe­cially when the Boil­er­mak­ers sport a wob­bly 6-12 ATS mark at home in MAC meet­ings since 2002. Of course, we’re not go­ing to mort­gage the house on Eastern Michi­gan, not with the Ea­gles now just 1-24 SU in their last 25 Big Ten show­downs. As bad as that looks, though, head coach Chris Creighton has the EMU pro­gram headed in the right di­rec­tions with 13 wins the last two-plus sea­sons. In ad­di­tion, seven starters re­turn on de­fense for an Ea­gles team that al­lowed the fewest num­ber of points in school his­tory last sea­son. De­spite their wide-open rep­u­ta­tion on of­fense un­der Brohm, the Boil­ers av­er­aged 25 PPG in 2017 and might be car­ry­ing too big a price for such a pedes­trian out­put to­day. So we’ll shelve our ex­pec­ta­tions this week with a slight lean to the visi­tors.con­cern for Sparty with tonight’s matchup is two-fold. One, play­ing week­day games dur­ing the reg­u­lar sea­son has not been to MSU’s lik­ing of late (0-4 ATS). And two, head coach Mark Dan­to­nio is 0-4 ATS in sea­son open­ers ver­sus foes than won 7 or more games the pre­vi­ous sea­son. Let’s not for­get the price of ad­mis­sion, ei­ther: Michi­gan State is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 tries as chalk of 20 or more points. Since tak­ing over the Utah State pro­gram in 2013, Matt Wells has led the Ag­gies to bowl games in four of five sea­sons while knock­ing off three Top 25 ranked foes un­der his lead. How­ever, he’s also watched his team get blasted in their road opener the past two years, 45-7 at USC and 59-10 at Wis­con­sin. It all boils down to this – we plan to buy sev­eral tick­ets on th­ese two in 2018 but we’ll skip tonight and go to a few Satur­day mati­nees this fall in­stead.

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