INDIANA over Virginia by 10
This could be a make-or-break season for Virginia HC Bronco Mendenhall. He’s managed just an 8-17 SU record in two years and even though UVA backed into a bowl at the end of 2017, the Cavaliers were battered, shattered, creamed and reamed by Navy in a 49-7 embarrassment. Despite that score, Mendenhall knows his defense is improving, gaining 81 YPG and 6 PPG compared to his first-year squad. They showed up big against Richmond to open the season, shutting down the Spiders in a 42-13 win where they allowed only 225 total yards. Defense is also the story at Indiana these days as the Hoosiers’ stop-unit is the most improved in the nation since Tom Allen’s arrival as DC and now head coach. IU squeezed out a tough win-no cover on ther road at FIU last week but its 31-5 SU mark in home openers works here, especially considering the Hoosiers’ record in games it manages to win SU as a favorite. Though we have a lot of respect for Mendenhall and his Cavs, Virginia was doubled up in a 34-17 Indiana win at Charlottesville last season as a 3.5-point dog. Allen’s troops look to be a little further along at this point, too, so we’ll back an IU squad that’s 4-1 ATS as chalk of late, including 2-0 ATS at Bloomington. Again.