Dry spell not a concern, yet

No rain for next 7 days at least

In this El Niño year no one expected Mother Nature to turn off the spigot, but that is what has occurred this month and while no one is panicking, the dry spell is raising some concerns.

So far in February, just 0.01 of an inch of rain has been measured and that was on Feb. 1. There has been no rain measured for the past eight days and there is no rain in the immediate forecast. By contrast, there were 15 days of measurable rainfall in January and eight in December.

On top of the dry spell, high temperatures are setting records statewide. The high temperature at 3:30 p.m. Tuesday in Porterville was 77 degrees. In Southern California, summer-like temperatures and Santa Ana winds were reported.

Chris Stambach with California Citrus Mutual said the warmer temperatures are not that big of a concern just yet, but orange growers would like to see it a little bit cooler right now.

“It doesn’t help fruit quality,” if it gets too warm, he said. However, this has been a colder winter than the past two winters and there is good moisture in the ground which should keep the trees from getting stressed from the dry, warm weather.

What the warm weather

might do is bring on new growth on the trees, a concern if a late frost should occur.

Meteorologist Scott Borgioli with WeatherAg said a dry spell during an El Niño year is not unprecedented. He said a three-week dry spell occurred in March of 1998, an El Niño year.

However, in light of the past four dry years, rainfall and snowfall is critical right now. Borgioli said the next chance for rain looks like it might be Feb. 17, but he has also cautioned it could be dry most of this month.

“Climate models suggest below average rainfall through the middle of February and models are trending that way. Very latest model runs trending dry through Feb 19 for our area,” Borgioli said in his daily forecast.

Warm temperatures are expected to continue at least into the weekend.

Last year, Porterville got 0.57 of an inch of rain in February and 0.52 the year before. Average rainfall for February is 1.82 inches.

To date, Porterville has received 7.77 inches of rain, still above average for this time of the year.

Water Storage

Of greater concern is filling up reservoirs around the state, especially the San Luis Reservoir on the Valley’s west side. It is that reservoir which supplies the Exchange Contractors with their water and if there is no water there for those water districts, then they can and will take water from Millerton Lake, which supplies eastside growers.

Jason Phillips, CEO of Friant Water Users, said he is not concerned yet. In fact, he said if the rain and winds calm for a while, that should allow for more pumping of water out of the San Joaquin Delta. Dirty water slows or stops the pumps because the Delta smelt is attracted by the dirty water.

He said those restrictions on pumping have allowed “a couple hundred thousand acre-feet of water” to be lost to the ocean.

“The Delta is broken. Restrictions on ability to pump water through the Delta is very concerning,” he said.

However, the snowpack above Millerton is the best it has been in years at more than 100 percent of average for this time of year. Phillips said Friant users could see anywhere from 20 percent to 70 percent of their allotment this year, depending on if the spigot is turned back on.