Momentum appears to be gaining again for recall

The first major poll on the Governor Gavin Newsom’s recall election since the field for the election was officially set shows Newsom could again potentially be in trouble.

And the poll shows one of the reasons why moving up the recall election to as soon as possible could actually hurt Newsom: Apathy among Democrats.

There’s no question Republicans are backing the recall and are motivated to vote Newsom out when the recall election is held on September 14. And a recent poll evidently shows those Republicans make up enough of likely voters in the state to possibly make the recall election virtually a dead heat.

A poll released by the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies on Tuesday shows 50 percent of the most likely voters would vote against the recall to retain Newsom and 47 percent would vote in favor of the recall.

State Democratic leaders pushed up the recall election to as soon as possible to be held on September 14 with the conventional wisdom an earlier election would help Newsom. But there was also the concern turnout among Democrats in an off-year election on a date in which an election normally isn’t held could be low.

The Berkeley poll potentially shows much more support for the recall after earlier polls showed support for the recall only in the 35 to 40 percent range.

In the recall election two questions will be asked. The first question will be if voters support the recall. If more than 50 percent of the voters vote yes, then the second part of the recall will go into effect in which voters will select from a long list of candidates to replace Newsom. And Newsom can’t be on the list of candidates.

In that event the candidate with the most votes would become the governor and wouldn’t need a majority or more than 50 percent. So it’s a definite possibility if Newsom is recalled he will be ousted in a vote in which more voters support him and vote against the recall than voters who voted for the

The obvious key for Newsom between now and September 14 is to make sure Democrats turn out. The Berkeley poll of all registered voters came up with similar results to other polls. That poll shows 51 percent of registered voters would vote against the recall and 36 percent would vote for it.

“The main factor contributing to these very different distributions is that, if current levels of interest and voting in

tentions persist, turnout is likely to be far higher among Republicans than Democratsa nd No Party Preference voters. And, since nearly all Republicans favor Newsom’s ouster, a larger proportion of likely voters are voting Yes,” said Mark Dicamillo, the poll’s director.

There have also been wild swings in Newsom’s approval rating during the COVID-19 pandemic with his approval rating anywhere from 45 to 60 percent. The Berkeley poll showed Newsom’s approval rating is back under 50 percent again with 48 approving of his job performance and 51 percent disapproving.

It appears the entrance of conservative commentator Larry Elder into the race has increased Republican motivation even more.

Showing how Newsom could possibly be ousted by a far lower number of voters who would vote against the recall, the Berkeley poll shows Elder leading with 18 percent. Elder has also shown he will raise the most money among the Republican challengers.

Two other major Republican candidates, San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and businessman John Cox are polling around 10 percent. Another major Republican candidate, Caitlyn Jenner, is polling at just 3 percent.

Another outlier that could possibly affect the race just enough is the candidacy of Youtube star Kevin Paffrath. He’s the only Democrat who has any real poll numbers at 3 percent.

But it also should be noted a large number of voters — 40 percent — are undecided when it comes to Newsom’s replacement.

It’s expected the situation concerning the recall to continue to fluctuate. Something that should help Newsom is mail-in voting and every registered voter will receive their mail-in ballot by August 16.

Complacency among Democrats could also be a problem for Newsom, Dicamillo said.

“There is a widespread expectation among Democrats and No Party Preference voters that Newsom will defeat the recall which may be fostering greater complacency among recall opponents than among supporters,” Dicamillo said.

Dicamillo also said since there’s just the one issue on the September 14 ballot, that could keep turnout down as compared to other elections in which there are numerous state and local issues and candidates on a ballot.

An ominous statement for Newsom from Dicamillo was this: “Many more Democrats than Republicans report not intending to cast a vote on the question of the Governor’s replacement due to an absence of well-known Democratic candidates. This also appears to be giving GOP voters a greater incentive to participate.”

Dicamillo said an extensive effort was made in identifying 6,000 registered voters who would be likely voters to make up the poll.