What is the holdup for starting baseball?
11 questions as MLB, union enter a key week of negotiations
The fate of the 2020 baseball season could be decided by the end of next week, which most have pointed to as a soft deadline for an agreement between MLB and the players union.
Though negotiations have been contentious — to say the least — and neither side appears willing to budge on a fair way to compensate players during a pandemic-shortened season without fans, hope springs eternal that they can reach a compromise and play ball.
Here are some things we’ve learned from discussions with baseball people on both sides of the issue.
1. What is the drop-dead date for a decision to start the season? There is none. But in order to have an 82-game season that begins by the first week of July, a spring training needs to begin by June 10th. Teams believe most pitchers will need about four weeks to get ready, and position players will need about three. Players believe they should play more than 82 games and are willing to stretch the season beyond September and start the postseason later if need be. In that case, they could wait until later in June before agreeing to terms. MLB fears a second wave of the coronavirus could arrive later in the fall and wants to get the postseason finished by the end of October, so it would need to know sooner. A 60- or 70-game season would be considered insufficient for baseball purists.
2. Where would spring training 2.0 begin for the Chicago Cubs and Chicago White Sox? The Cubs are likely to hold their camp at Wrigley Field, with a local college providing a secondary site, presuming Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Mayor Lori Lightfoot sign off. A White Sox source said it’s too soon to say whether they would hold theirs at Guaranteed Rate Field or Camelback Ranch in Glendale, Ariz. There will be few exhibition games, if any, because of the desire to avoid travel. Intrasquad games and simulated games might have to suffice, though the Cubs and Sox theoretically could play against each other if both were to train in Chicago. 3. What’s the holdup? Assuming the sides are close on health and safety protocols, including widespread testing, financial matters likely will be the deciding factor. MLB has proposed a tiered system of salary cuts that penalizes the higher-paid players more than the lesser-paid players. The players contend they agreed to accept prorated salaries in March when a deal was struck to give them a lump sum of $170 million, plus service time, in the event of a canceled season. They currently are holding their ground. The owners contend they will lose money without fans and would thus need deeper pay cuts, but the union isn’t buying it. “The players said we only want to get paid for the games we play,” one source said. “The owners said: ‘Yes, sir, I’ll take that deal.’ So to suggest we’re going to negotiate from something we already negotiated, we already gave up that consideration.” Max Scherzer, a member of the union’s executive subcommittee, said there is “no reason to engage with MLB in any further reductions.” Case closed?
4. Is there optimism a deal will be reached? It depends on whom you ask. One league source admitted there is a “disconnect” between the sides and said it was “ugly.” Some on the players’ side believe the owners almost would have to play this season because it’s the difference between losing perhaps $100 million or making
around $20 million from guaranteed media rights and sponsorship deals. MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred contends owners will lose nearly $4 billion combined if games are played in empty stadiums and they have to pay prorated salaries. Las Vegas is betting the season will happen. According to betonline.ag, the odds are 1-5 the season will be played as opposed to 3-1 it will be canceled.
5. What is the biggest fear of teams? That one player or someone in the organization will act irresponsiblyand contract the coronarvirus by not staying home, then spreading it to other players. Despite the proposed testing protocols, no one can be totally riskfree, and it only takes one positive test to ruin things.
6. What will happen to minor-leaguers? Some teams will continue to pay theirs while others are still deciding. There won’t be a minor-league season, but the possibility of an expanded Fall League exists to continue the development of some top prospects. Depending on roster sizes, some minorleaguers will be on teams’ taxi squads, perhaps playing in minor-league ballparks near the home cities to stay ready.
7. Will the media be allowed to cover the games? We’ll see. MLB has not revealed plans on proposed media access. The Baseball Writers Association of America has asked to discuss access issues with MLB, which has delayed its response, according to the president of the BBWAA — who happens to be me. Access is essential to provide fans with information on teams and players, and as long as reporters follow socialdistancing guidelines and wear masks, the BBWAA feels the media should be allowed to interview players and managers in safe settings.
8. Why are the Cubs in the middle of the fight between MLB and the union? They’re not. It just seems that way. A memo agent Scott Boras sent his clients Thursday used the Cubs as an example of why the players needed to stand firm on their demand for prorated salaries and not “bail out” the billionaire owners. The Cubs took umbrage to being dragged into the fight between the owners and union, pointing to their high payroll. Boras said Friday that he actually was “complimenting” the Cubs by using the franchise to “illustrate great business practices” of the Rickettses, who have used their profits from the team to invest in other assets. “When people operate their franchise at no profit or even suggesting losses, that is really a methodology they use to optimize the profitability of the team,” Boras said. “Cubs players generate millions and millions of dollars of profit to the Cubs organization. How they choose to use it, whether it’s starting (Marquee Sports Network) or (building the Hotel Zachary) or retails spots or (buying) rooftops — that’s up to them.
The Cubs were a great example — instead of buying down their debt and being completely free of debt, they used the money in other areas.” In other words, the players’ value makes a team more profitable, and the owners can choose to use those profits to reinvest in other assets that make the franchise more valuable, even if the baseball side shows a loss. “Good for them,” Boras said of the Cubs. “Good business.”
9. Will fans be banned from ballparks all season? Some insiders believe about 70% of teams will be allowed to have fans in their stadiums by midJuly or early August because of to more lax restrictions from their local governments. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, for instance, approved an order Thursday allowing outdoor sports facilities to operate at 25% capacity. Less permissive states, such as Illinois, New York and California, might be among the last to allow fans. Teams must receive approval from government officials to allow fans, and many have begun working on plans with their governors.
10. Will fans be allowed on rooftops outside Wrigley Field? Again, it will depend on whether Pritzker and Lightfoot allow it. The Rickettses own 11 of the rooftops, and the Cubs would like nothing better than to be able to show fans responsibly partying and enjoying baseball during telecasts on Marquee.
11. If there is no agreement, who will be blamed? That’s in the eye of the beholder. Certainly millionaire players would be blamed by some for refusing to accept pay cuts with millions of Americans unemployed. But most billionaire owners have deep pockets and easily could afford to get through a half-season of potential losses after raking in money for years. The only thing that seems certain is the game will suffer severe damage — and some fans likely won’t ever come back.