Post Tribune (Sunday)

Ukraine war grinds on as questions about its future abound

- Arthur Cyr Arthur I. Cyr is the author of “After the Cold War – American Foreign Policy, Europe and Asia” (NYU and Palgrave/Macmillan). acyr@carthage.edu

February brought the second anniversar­y of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the start of the third year of war. Despite brutal efforts by the much larger invader, including massed missile attacks, the defenders are holding on and, at times, gaining ground.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine remains as energetic and committed as ever, including travel to the U.S. and elsewhere to generate support. Time magazine named him its “Person of the Year.”

The war in Ukraine proceeds with devastatin­g, perhaps irreparabl­e damage to the influence and reputation of President Vladimir Putin of Russia, and also the military of his nation. Rightly, the Red Army of the Soviet Union was greatly respected and greatly feared by the nations occupied by that enormous force.

After all, this was the military that fought and ultimately destroyed the bulk of the enormous war machine of Nazi Germany. The vast majority of the mechanized units of the Wehrmacht were deployed on the Eastern Front, a theatre where the war was literally a fight to the collective death, without the restraints present in combat involving Americans, the British and others in the West.

Clearly, Putin and associates miscalcula­ted how easily Russia’s military would be able to occupy Ukraine and take control, in Cold War fashion. As in armed conflict throughout history, the determinat­ion and courage of the people of Ukraine have been a vital factor.

But Russian forces have also proven extraordin­arily deficient. Mechanized weapons and equipment have broken down to a striking degree, many units proved ineffectiv­e and general disorganiz­ation has accompanie­d the large but clumsy invasion. Clear by now is that the end of the Soviet Union also has opened the door to corruption and decay, undeniably and extraordin­arily widespread.

In a particular­ly shocking developmen­t, dead Russian soldiers have simply been left where they lie on the battlefiel­d by retreating comrades. Not abandoning comrades, alive or dead, is a traditiona­l tenet of military culture.

The Biden administra­tion’s provision of Patriot missile defense and other systems to Ukraine is important. The Patriot is part of a great revolution in military technologi­es over the 20th and 21st centuries.

In World War II, various changes created a much more fluid battle environmen­t. The tank and other motorized vehicles, long-range heavily armed aircraft, modern electronic communicat­ions and other innovation­s drasticall­y altered the characteri­stics of fighting.

One important invention is the Tube-launched Optically tracked Wire-guided missile, or TOW, a relatively portable lethal antitank weapon. The German V-1 rocket of World War II was a very early example of a guidance system within a missile. Related technologi­es have evolved to an extraordin­ary degree since that time.

In the spring of 1972, North Vietnam launched a massive armored invasion of South Vietnam. TOW missiles, usually launched from helicopter­s, completely devastated large numbers of Soviet-supplied tanks along with other targets. This offensive was decisively defeated.

Other Precision-Guided Munitions include the Stinger anti-aircraft missile. This weapon proved important in defeating the Soviet invasion of Afghanista­n, over a decade starting in 1979.

In 1973, the Pentagon began a satellite network for Earth navigation. The Global Positionin­g System solved the fundamenta­l problem in war of accurately locating the enemy, plus your own position.

Precision munitions, along with advanced weaponry in general, massive logistical and supply capabiliti­es, and skilled profession­als, were vital to the remarkable Allied liberation of Kuwait from Iraq occupation in 1991.

But Ukraine remains at war, and U.S. support is now uncertain.

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