US warns China may boost number of nuclear warheads to 1,500 by ’35
WASHINGTON — China is expanding its nuclear force and is on pace to nearly quadruple the number of warheads it has by 2035, rapidly closing its gap with the United States, the Pentagon said in a report released Tuesday.
The report builds on the military’s warning last year that China is expanding its nuclear force much faster than U.S. officials had predicted, highlighting a broad and accelerating buildup of military muscle designed to enable
Beijing to match or surpass U.S. global power by mid-century.
Last year, the Pentagon said the number of Chinese nuclear warheads could increase to 700 within six years and may top 1,000 by 2030.
The new report says China has about 400 nuclear warheads, and that number could grow to 1,500 by 2035.
The United States, by comparison, has 3,750 active nuclear warheads.
Beijing’s growing arsenal is creating uncertainty for the U.S. as it navigates how to deter two nuclear powers, Russia and China, simultaneously, the Pentagon said in its recent nuclear posture review.
And China’s buildup also creates uncertainty about its intentions, said Bonny Lin, director of the China power project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“Will the actual increase in capability start impacting how Chinese experts think about the use of nuclear weapons,” such as whether it would change Beijing’s no “first use” policy? Lin asked. “That’s the uncertainty. We can’t assume that if they have more capabilities, that their policy is going to remain the same.”
China has also made worrisome gains in building capabilities that “blind and deafen the enemy,” including knocking out communications and early warning satellites, expanding its use of artificial intelligence and intensifying their efforts in cyberwarfare, the report said.
The Pentagon, in its recently released national defense strategy, said China remains the greatest security challenge for the United States.
China is also watching how the international community reacts to Russia’s threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, said John Erath, senior policy director for the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.
The report’s release comes two weeks after President Joe Biden met with China’s Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Group of 20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia.