Sun Belt growth serves both parties
There are a lot of us in the Northeastern media who properly spend a lot of time slamming the Republican Party for what a mess it has become. I have only one question: If we’re right, why are so many people leaving blue states so they can live in red ones?
Between 2010 and 2020, the fastestgrowing states were mostly red — places such as Texas, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee and South Carolina. During the pandemic that trend accelerated, and once again, most of the big population-gaining states are governed by Republicans.
If you go back further, you see decade after decade of migration toward the more conservative South. Brookings Institution demographer William Frey has noted that in 1920, the Northeast and the Midwest accounted for 60% of America’s population. A century later, the Sun Belt accounts for 62% of the nation’s population. These days, we are mostly a Sun Belt nation.
Why are these red states growing so rapidly? The short answer is that they are more pro-business. In a study for the American Enterprise Institute, Mark Perry compared the top 10 states people were flocking to in 2021 with the top 10 states people were flocking from.
The places they are flocking to have lower taxes. The 10 states that saw the biggest population gains have an average maximum income tax of 3.8%. The 10 states with the biggest population loss have an 8% average rate.
The growing states also have fewer restrictions on home construction. That contributes to lower housing prices. The median home price in those 10 populationgaining states is an average of 23% less than that of the 10 biggest population-losing states.
Perry goes down a range of other factors and concludes that Americans are moving away from blue states with high energy costs, Byzantine regulatory regimes and unfriendly business climates. They are moving to economically vibrant red states with lower costs, more conservative fiscal policies and more job opportunities.
Fifty years ago, few would have predicted that the American South would emerge as an economic dynamo — and that people would be flocking to places such as South Carolina and Tennessee, but it’s happening.
So, can we tell a simple story here: Republican policies work, Democratic policies don’t?
Well, not quite. When you look inside the red states at where the growth is occurring, you notice immediately that the dynamism is not mostly in the red parts of the red states. The growth is in the metro areas — which are often blue cities in red states. A study from the LBJ Urban Lab, for example, found that Austin, Houston and DallasFort Worth accounted for 71% of the jobs created in Texas in 2019.
Edward Glaeser, a Harvard economist who studies cities, provided me with data that showed which cities enjoyed rapid employment growth between 2019 and 2021. They tended to be from warmer parts of the country, an all-star team of Sun Belt blue cities: Austin; Raleigh and Durham, North Carolina; Miami; Nashville, Tennessee; Tampa, Florida; and Phoenix. Republicans may be proud that many of their states are growing, but Austin is not CPAC’s utopia.
If you look at these success stories you see they are actually the product of a red-blue mashup. Republicans at the state level provide the general business climate, but Democrats at the local level influence the schools, provide many social services and create a civic atmosphere that welcomes diversity and attracts highly educated workers.
Very often, conservative state authorities war with the more liberal city authorities over things such as minimum wage laws and LGBTQ rights. But, at least for right now, the red-blue mashup seems to work.
So, if this is the formula that produces a dynamic and cosmopolitan society, where is the political party that is conservativeleaning on business matters and more liberal-leaning on things such as education, immigration and workforce development?
Where is the party that stands for the policy blend that manifestly works?
Once you could squint and imagine the George W. Bush/Mitt Romney Republican Party morphing in that direction. No longer. The GOP is a working-class populist party that has no interest in nurturing highly educated boomtowns. The GOP does everything it can to repel those people — and the Teslas they drove in on.
If you look at Democrats on the coasts, you don’t see much movement in that direction, either. But Democrats have been growing stronger in exactly these growing Southwestern states. Joe Biden became the first Democrat to win Maricopa County (Phoenix) since 1948. Democrats now hold all six of the Senate seats from Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado. They held both seats in Arizona until Kyrsten Sinema went independent.
As the Democratic Party becomes more the party of the college-educated voters and as the Republicans become more the party of white working-class voters, Democratic prospects in the upper Midwest get worse. But their prospects in the Southwestern growth areas get better. It would not surprise me if a different kind of Democrat emerged from these areas.
We know the policy mix that creates a dynamic society. We just don’t yet have a party that wants to promote it.