The recall effort nears qualifying

On Sunday, organizers for the recall announced they have collected nearly 2 million signatures to force a recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom. Organizers must gather 1,495,709 valid signatures by March 17 for the recall election to move ahead. With recall backers

It has been almost two decades since Californians last recalled a governor.

In 2003, 55.4% of Californians voted to approve the recall of Gray Davis and almost half, 48.6%, elected Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger to succeed him.

The particular circumstances and underlying dynamics between then and now are obviously quite different in many ways.

Last month, a poll released by the United of California at Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies found that 49% of Californians said it would be “a bad thing rather than a good thing” to recall Newsom. Just 36% said it would be a good thing.

While that doesn’t reflect particularly well for the recall effort, the poll also found that Newsom’s approval among registered voters plummeted from 64% in September to 46% as of late January. Similarly, a survey released by the Public Policy Institute of California likewise found that among likely voters, Newsom’s approval ratings fell from 64% last May to 52% as of January.

Time will tell whether public perceptions of Newsom improve or decline in the coming months as the pandemic continues to unfold and the economy adjusts in turn. That will impact the recall effort.

Already, Californians have gotten a sense of how the campaigns will shape up.

The California Republican

Party is supporting the recall, and there are already two significant Republican candidates, businessman John Cox and former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, in the running to succeed Newsom if the recall succeeds.

Unsurprisingly, given Newsom’s long posture as being an opponent of the Trump administration and the size of the state of California, the recall has drawn national attention. President Joe Biden is already on the record as opposing the recall.

Just this week, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, lashed out at recall supporters, tweeting that Republicans are trying to recall Newsom “for the crime of telling people to wear masks and for listening to scientists during COVID.”

Sanders continued, “Republicans have done enough to undermine democracy already. We must all unite to oppose the recall in California.”

Setting aside the reality that there’s nothing anti-democratic about recalls, they’re a constitutionally authorized democratic tool, the effort to equate support for the recall with fringe points of view has been a consistent messaging effort by supporters of the governor. Californians are in for an interesting year politically if the recall formally qualifies. It would be a referendum on Newsom’s governance, flaws and all, coupled with political infighting and national partisans seeking to use the recall as a proxy fight.