Will we see Trump vs. DeSantis in 2024?
This week, news broke that Donald Trump is considering announcing a 2024 presidential run as soon as this summer.
The former president is reportedly teasing an early entrance into the race in an effort to divert attention away from his greatest political (and legal) vulnerability — the Jan. 6 hearings — and from his biggest intraparty political rival — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — who appears increasingly viable as a 2024 presidential candidate.
Ultimately, while Trump is clearly the dominant frontrunner for the 2024 GOP nomination — should he choose to run — DeSantis is attracting donors, generating momentum and benefiting from the fact that he is not Trump.
The prospect of Trump declaring his candidacy before November has the Republican establishment on edge, as it could disrupt the party's midterm messaging about the economy and give Democrats an opportunity to turn the midterms into a referendum on Trump — which, absent a unifying or coherent message of their own, the left is eager to do.
Candidly, the GOP establishment would likely welcome the chance to put Trump behind them in 2024, as many of these members acknowledge privately that the party's future political prospects will be in jeopardy if they continue to focus on Trump's priorities — namely, his “Big Lie” — rather than on their agenda for the future.
But much to the chagrin of the Republican rank-and-file, Trump is still by far the favorite to win the nomination if he does decide to run. With 55% of the vote, Trump holds a commanding 35-point lead over DeSantis, who ranks in second place with 20%, per recent polling by Emerson College.
Further, the former president's endorsement track record in primaries this year — though not perfect — indicates that he still retains a good amount of influence with Republican voters.
Despite facing setbacks in Georgia, where Trump's revenge plays against the incumbent governor and secretary of state didn't play out, his endorsements of three U.S. Senate candidates — J.D. Vance in Ohio, Tedd Budd in North Carolina and Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania — were essential to their victories.
And unless Trump is charged with a crime by the Justice Department, it's unlikely that the Jan. 6 revelations will significantly weaken his standing with Republican voters — notwithstanding the broader significance of the committee's findings for the country.
Indeed, less than one-fifth (17%) of Republicans believe
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